August 1, 2002: Headlines: Peace Corps Directors - Shriver: Gare Research: Delegate Mark Shriver leads Senator Chris Van Hollen by one slim point in the four-way race to challenge Congresswoman Connie Morella this fall
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August 1, 2002: Headlines: Peace Corps Directors - Shriver: Gare Research: Delegate Mark Shriver leads Senator Chris Van Hollen by one slim point in the four-way race to challenge Congresswoman Connie Morella this fall
Delegate Mark Shriver leads Senator Chris Van Hollen by one slim point in the four-way race to challenge Congresswoman Connie Morella this fall
Delegate Mark Shriver leads Senator Chris Van Hollen by one slim point in the four-way race to challenge Congresswoman Connie Morella this fall
8th Congressional District Democratic Primary
It's a toss-up! Delegate Mark Shriver leads Senator Chris Van Hollen by one slim point in the four-way race to challenge Congresswoman Connie Morella this fall. Shriver captures 31% of the Democratic primary vote to Van Hollen's 30%, with former Clinton administration official Ira Shapiro coming in third with 14%, and perennial candidate Deborah Vollmer bringing up the rear with 4%. Twenty-one percent of the primary electorate remains undecided, a pretty sizeable number with just three weeks to go before Election Day.
Shriver is recognized by all but 5% of the Democratic primary electorate, and favorably by 57%. His negatives (14%) are twice as high as Van Hollen's (8%), though, who gets a 51% favorable rating while still unknown to 18% of the voters. Shapiro's overall name ID is a respectable 79%. His positives (28%) are half that of Shriver's, and 44% of voters have a neutral opinion of Shapiro. Vollmer's name is recognized by 54% of Democratic primary voters in District 8, but positively by only 9%.
Shriver owes a great deal of his margin to African-American voters. He's getting 41% of the black vote, while Van Hollen earns 14%. Significantly, 38% of African-Americans are still undecided. Van Hollen, on the other hand, is winning with white voters (34% to Shriver's 29%). Shapiro gets 16% of the white vote, and Vollmer 5%. Sixteen percent of white voters are undecided.
Shriver leads Van Hollen with men (33% to 24%), while Van Hollen leads among women (35% to 29%). Shapiro gets 17% of men, and 11% of women. Vollmer, the only female in the primary contest, gets 6% of women, but just 1% of men. More men (25%) than women (19%) have yet to make up their minds.
With 21% undecided and oodles of money yet to be spent, this race could go either way. Van Hollen still has the opportunity to introduce himself to 18% of the voters, but Shriver's familial advantage with black voters is an important component in the electoral equation as well. Whatever the outcome of the primary, the winner better catch his breath: He'll be facing Connie Morella, who is viewed favorably by 54% of the Democratic primary voters in the 8th Congressional District.
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Story Source: Gare Research
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