|By ktgaudette on Friday, February 22, 2002 - 6:02 am: Edit Post|
IA Futurist Report--even the most optimistic scenario assumes the FAILURE of the Peace Corps 3 Principles--both in 3rd World and in USA!!!
In an unclassified National Intelligence Council study, Alternative Global Futures:2000-2015,
cosponsored by the US Department of
State and the CIA, several dozen government and nongovernment specialists in a wide range of fields developed the following scenarios for the future:
Scenario One: Inclusive Globalization:
A virtuous circle develops among technology, economic
growth, demographic factors, and effective governance,
which enables a majority of the world's people to
benefit from globalization...A minority of the world's people¡ªin Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Central and South Asia, and the Andean region¡ªdo not benefit from these positive changes, and internal conflicts persist in and around those countries left behind.
Scenario Two: Pernicious Globalization
Global elites thrive, but the majority of the world's
population fails to benefit from globalization.
Technologies not only fail to address the problems of
developing countries but also are exploited by
negative and illicit networks and incorporated into
destabilizing weapons. The global economy splits into
three: growth continues in developed countries; many
developing countries experience low or negative per
capita growth, resulting in a growing gap with the
developed world; and the illicit economy grows
Scenario Three: Regional Competition
Regional identities sharpen in Europe, Asia, and the
Americas, driven by growing political resistance in
Europe and East Asia to US global preponderance and
US-driven globalization and each region's increasing
preoccupation with its own economic and political
priorities....Given the preoccupation of the three
major regions with their own concerns, countries
outside these regions in Sub-Saharan Africa, the
Middle East, and Central and South Asia have few
places to turn for resources or political support.
Military conflict among and within the three major
regions does not materialize, but internal conflicts
increase in and around other countries left behind.
Scenario Four: Post-Polar World
US domestic preoccupation increases as the US economy
slows, then stagnates. Economic and political tensions
with Europe grow...Over time, these
geostrategic shifts ignite longstanding national
rivalries among the Asian powers, triggering increased
military preparations and hitherto dormant or covert
WMD programs....Given the priorities of Asia, the Americas, and Europe, countries outside these regions are marginalized, with virtually no sources of political or financial support.