|By ktgaudette on Friday, February 22, 2002 - 6:20 am: Edit Post|
CIA Futurist Report--the most optimistic scenario assumes the FAILURE of the Peace Corps 3 Principles--both in 3rd World and in USA!!!
================================================== In an unclassified National Intelligence Council study, Alternative Global Futures:2000-2015,
cosponsored by the US Department of
State and the CIA, several dozen government and nongovernment specialists in a wide range of fields developed the following scenarios for the future:
Scenario One: Inclusive Globalization:
A virtuous circle develops among technology, economic growth, demographic factors, and effective governance, which enables a majority of the world's people to benefit from globalization...A MINORITY of the world's people, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Central and South Asia, and the Andean region, do not benefit from these positive changes, and internal conflicts persist in and around those countries left behind.
Scenario Two: Pernicious Globalization
Global elites thrive, but the majority of the world's population fails to benefit from globalization. Technologies not only fail to address the problems of developing countries but also are exploited by negative and illicit networks and incorporated into destabilizing weapons. The global economy splits into
three: growth continues in developed countries; many developing countries experience low or negative per capita growth, resulting in a growing gap with the developed world; and the illicit economy grows dramatically.
Scenario Three: Regional Competition
Regional identities sharpen in Europe, Asia, and the Americas, driven by growing political resistance in Europe and East Asia to US global preponderance and US-driven globalization and each region's increasing preoccupation with its own economic and political priorities....Given the preoccupation of the three major regions with their own concerns, countries outside these regions--in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Central and South Asia--have few places to turn for resources or political support.
Military conflict among and within the three major regions does not materialize, but internal conflicts increase in and around other countries left behind.
Scenario Four: Post-Polar World
US domestic preoccupation increases as the US economy slows, then stagnates. Economic and political tensions with Europe grow...Over time, these geostrategic shifts ignite longstanding national rivalries among the Asian powers, triggering increased military preparations and hitherto dormant or covert WMD programs....Given the priorities of Asia, the Americas, and Europe, countries outside these regions are marginalized, with virtually no sources of political or financial support.