Team leader Tom Byrne has been in charge of Korea analysis since the financial crisis, and served for three years in Korea as a Peace Corps member.
Moody's Team Arrival Puts MOFE on Alert
by Yun Yeong-shin (ysyoon@chosun.com)
With an assessment team from the top rating service Moody’s coming to town, the Ministry of Finance and Economy (MOFE) is in a state of emergency.
The ministry organized a taskforce of nine government and civilian experts on Friday, holding an emergency meeting to study problems in the Korean economy that have been mentioned by investors from New York and Hong Kong. The team also composed a prospective question list, to prepare for the Moody’s inquiry. The inquiry is to take place January 20 and 21.
The team also selected interviewees for the Moody’s team, including Sogang University professor Jo Yun-je, Woori Financial Group vice president Jeon Gwang-wu, and Federation of Korean Industries director Jeong Tae-seung.
The taskforce is particularly concerned about the Moody’s rating, since it is the first assessment of the three major rating companies this year, and is to set the mood for the future national credit rating.
The taskforce has scheduled a meeting between the Moody’s team and president-elect Roh Moo-hyun's transition committee. The committee is to present the new administration’s policy, and address the concerns of foreign investors, such as North Korea's nuclear program and the South's increasing anti-American protests.
If Moody’s lower Korea's credit rating, the economy could be hard-hit, with a combination of bad news including a possible war with Iraq, rising oil prices, a falling currency exchange rate, and the nuclear crisis. Financial experts say that as Korea is still recovering from the 1997 financial crisis, a drop in its credit rating would stall the recovery. Moody’s lowered Korea’s rating by six levels from A1 to Baa3 following the Asian financial crisis at the end of 1997, but has since upgraded it to A3, in March, 2002.
The timing of Moody’s visit was moved up from the routine assessment in March to January 20, following concerns in Washington and Wall Street over the nuclear crisis and increasing anti-American sentiment in Korea. Senior sovereign risk analyst and assessment team leader Tom Byrne informed Chief Gwon Tae-shin, of MOFE’s International Finance Department, on January 6 that the review committee would be held in January.
However, the ministry presented information to researchers, arguing that the situation in Korea is not as serious as thought. The ministry postponed holding the review committee until March. MOFE International Policy official Kim Yong-deok said Moody’s visit would actually be a chance to clear foreign investors’ doubts about Korea.
The Moody’s team is to visit the MOFE, the Financial Supervisory Service, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Ministry of Unification, and the Federation of Korea Industries, and will meet with North Korea nuclear program specialists. The team’s three members, Tom Byrne, senior analyst Steve Hess, and vice president Brian Oak, are all familiar with Korea.
Team leader Tom Byrne has been in charge of Korea analysis since the financial crisis, and served for three years in Korea as a Peace Corps member. Byrne is well-informed about the situation in Korea and speaks the language. Steven Hess is married to a Korean woman, and speaks fluent Korean. Brian Oak is Korean-American, and has worked at the Bank of Korea and the MOFE as a translator and interpreter. MOFE official Kim said the government looks forwards to an unbiased result, since the team is well-informed about the country.
