November 27, 2004: Headlines: COS - Ukraine: Seattle Post Intelligencer: For the West, there also is a lot at stake in the outcome of the Ukrainian election. The United States has given billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine in the last 13 years, and there are currently more Peace Corps volunteers in Ukraine than anywhere else in the world.
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November 27, 2004: Headlines: COS - Ukraine: Seattle Post Intelligencer: For the West, there also is a lot at stake in the outcome of the Ukrainian election. The United States has given billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine in the last 13 years, and there are currently more Peace Corps volunteers in Ukraine than anywhere else in the world.
For the West, there also is a lot at stake in the outcome of the Ukrainian election. The United States has given billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine in the last 13 years, and there are currently more Peace Corps volunteers in Ukraine than anywhere else in the world.
For the West, there also is a lot at stake in the outcome of the Ukrainian election. The United States has given billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine in the last 13 years, and there are currently more Peace Corps volunteers in Ukraine than anywhere else in the world.
Analysis: Ukrainian crisis pits past against possible future
By SABRA AYRES
COX NEWS SERVICE
KIEV, Ukraine -- The drama unfolding here over the past week is about the future, but it also is very much about the past.
The conflict centers on Sunday's disputed presidential run-off election between the country's Kremlin-backed prime minister, Viktor Yanukovych, and challenger Viktor Yushchenko. Yanukovych was declared the winner by the country's Central Election Commission, despite widespread evidence of massive voter fraud and exit polls that showed the opposite outcome.
Large-scale protests ensued, and Ukraine's Supreme Court is expected on Monday to hear Yushchenko's appeal to nullify the official election results. Regardless of the outcome, his "orange revolution" (so named for the predominant color in his campaign) has already succeeded in awakening long-simmering differences in the former Soviet Republic.
The presidential contenders define the conflict. Yanukovych sees Ukraine's growth as tied to Russia, which was the construct that existed during the Cold War. Yushchenko, a Western-leaning liberal, believes integration with the European Union and a possible NATO membership would bring Ukraine the prosperity and democracy it deserves.
At the heart of the debate is a fight between the eastern, Russian-speaking and the western, Ukrainian-speaking parts of the country. The hundreds of thousands of Yushchenko supporters who have gathered in recent days in Kiev's Independence Square are pitted against many of their fellow countrymen as this young democracy struggles to decide between a Euro-Atlantic alliance or Moscow.
The debate has also drawn battle lines between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the United States, with both sides accusing each other of taking sides in Ukraine's domestic affairs.
Putin openly expressed his support for Yanukovych, who campaigned on the pledge that he would strengthen ties between Ukraine and Russia and even promoted dual citizenship. Putin called the election "open and honest" and sent congratulations to Yanukovych even before the official results were announced.
Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused the West of trying to influence the situation in Ukraine, especially after some European capitals said they would not accept the election results.
"The Ukrainian people must decide who Ukraine wants to be with, and such statements make you think that somebody really wants to draw new dividing lines in Europe," Lavrov told a news conference in Moscow.
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Putin sees Yanukovych as Moscow's choice because of heavy Russian investments in Ukrainian businesses, including oil refineries, aluminum factories and the country's extensive oil and gas pipelines. Russia poured as much as $50 million into Yanukovych's campaign, according to Profile, a Russian weekly magazine.
Putin also would like to ensure Ukraine's commitment to join an economic union of former Soviet republics including Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. But many fear the union would put Ukraine again under the influence of the Kremlin, which has become increasingly authoritative since Putin became president in 1999.
Some see them as throwbacks to the authoritarian Cold War-era regimes. Belorussian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has been called "Europe's last dictator." The United States placed sanctions on Belarus shortly after Lukashenko successfully passed a referendum ending presidential term limits.
For the West, there also is a lot at stake in the outcome of the Ukrainian election. The United States has given billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine in the last 13 years, and there are currently more Peace Corps volunteers in Ukraine than anywhere else in the world.
Much of the U.S. money went toward dismantling Ukraine's huge arsenal of nuclear weapons under the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, which was initiated by former Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Ga., and current Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind. The United States placed great hope that Ukraine would be a strategic buffer zone between Europe and Russia.
The European Union also would like to see a stable Ukraine now that it shares a border with the former Soviet country.
"Because of the geopolitical situation, Europe cannot afford to ignore Ukraine, nor can Ukraine afford to ignore Europe," said Nikolai Petrov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
Both the United States and the European Union have declared the election illegitimate. International monitoring groups, as well as Lugar, who was President Bush's envoy to monitor the elections, said the balloting was "a concerted and forceful program of election-day fraud and abuse."
Secretary of State Colin Powell said Tuesday the United States could not recognize the results unless the allegations of fraud were thoroughly investigated. Canada and several other countries followed.
In Europe, leaders from Poland, Lithuania and the EU's top foreign policy minister have all descended on Kiev to urge current Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma to find a peaceful solution to the crisis.
Regardless of the outcome, the thousands of pro-Yushchenko protesters in Kiev this past week signal that Ukrainians, for the first time since they declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, are willing to put up a serious fight for democracy. Many believe there is no turning back for the country of 48 million.
"This is the first time that Ukrainians have felt that they could really influence a situation," Petro Borkovsky, a research fellow at Ukraine's School for Political Analysis at the National Kyiv Mohyla Academy, said late this week. "For at least five days now they have felt they are able to promote democracy, and that feeling won't go away after this is over."
For the past 13 years, government scandals and cutbacks in civil rights have come and gone in Ukraine with very little public outcry.
Kuchma is accused of orchestrating the beheading of a journalist in 2000. The United States accused him of allowing the illegal sale of weapons to Saddam Hussein before the U.S.-led war in Iraq.
Independent media is almost non-existent. A civil society has been slow to develop. Much as in Russia, oligarchs control most of the country's industries and are very influential in Parliament.
The only other time Kiev has seen such a mass demonstration was in 2000 and 2001, when evidence emerged linking Kuchma to the murder of opposition journalist Georgiy Gongadze. The government quickly quieted the movement.
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Story Source: Seattle Post Intelligencer
This story has been posted in the following forums: : Headlines; COS - Ukraine
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