Thomas Gouttierre says believes there is still reason to be positive about the security situation in Afghanistan, mostly because three and a half years after the Taliban regime was brought down, things are finally getting back to normal.
AFGHANISTAN: KIDNAP DAMAGING TO THE COUNTRY'S CONFIDENCE, SAYS EXPERT
Kabul, 19 May (AKI) - The kidnapping of Italian aid worker Clementina Cantoni this week has put Afghanistan's security situation under the spotlight once more. But it should not be compared to the kidnapping of foreigners in Iraq, warns Afghan expert Thomas Gouttierre, as the situations in the two countries are very different. He believes the danger of Cantoni's abduction is that it will destroy the confidence of Afghans and foreigners alike, and this in itself could hinder gradual improvements in security.
Afghanistan has recently emerged from a relatively violence-free but incredibly harsh winter. Since the spring thaw and the announcement of a date for the country's parliamentary elections, the Taliban has reemerged, with sporadic attacks, often in the south of the country, where the hardline movement originated. On Wednesday for example, Taliban militants ambushed and killed six Afghans working on a US-funded project to stop opium cultivation, as they drove through the southern Helmand province. On the same day a 24-year-old female TV presenter, dismissed from her job two months ago following criticism from religious conservatives, was shot dead at her home in Kabul.
However, Gouttierre, who heads the Centre for Afghanistan Studies at the University of Nebraska, believes there is still reason to be positive about the security situation, mostly because three and a half years after the Taliban regime was brought down, things are finally getting back to normal. "People are busy about their work and business, they want to provide for their families and get things on track again and that's all most people are concerned about in Afghanistan, and that, in some ways, is the most important asset...just the restoration of normality has introduced discipline to the society," he told Adnkronos International (AKI).
While there has been a spate of child kidnappings, which sparked violent protests in the south of the country, very few foreigners have been kidnapped in Afghanistan. The most well-known abduction was of three UN election workers; seized following the presidential elections in November, they were released almost a month later.
Gouttierre believes the most damaging part of the kidnapping of Italian aid worker Cantoni is its effect on the country's efforts to get back to normal, which are often led by the international aid workers. "Anything like this is disheartening, demoralising....(it) destroys their confidence and the same thing happens for the Afghans," he explained.
Before worrying that this is the start of a new trend in the country, Gouttierre says it is important to look at the kidnappers' motives, and whether they turn out to be common criminals, as the Afghan police initially said, a gang tied to drug lords fighting the government's efforts to put them out of business, or a fundamentalist insurgency group still fighting for its survival.
Gouttierre, who coached Afghanistan's national basketball team while living there for almost ten years in the 1960s and 70s, is currently preparing for a visit to his university by the Afghan president Hamid Karzai next week, who will receive an honorary doctorate.
Gouttierre has met Karzai on many occasions during his visits to Afghanistan. He says the president's main problem when it comes to improving security is a lack of resources in relation to the size of the country. Great progress has been made in training up the new Afghan army, he said, "that means security is best in the areas with the highest population, but not very widespread in areas beyond that because of a lack of personnel."
There are currently around 18,000 foreign troops in Afghanistan, fighting the remaining Taliban insurgents, but Gouttierre says one of the main concerns is the border with Pakistan, where they have been concentrating efforts in the search for Osama bin Laden. "How can that number of troops be effective over such a long border, which is filled with mountain passes and challenging terrain?" he asks. "These are the challenges they face."
Another challenge is the country's first parliamentary elections since the Taliban was overthrown. They are fixed for September 18, and the registration of candidates is already well underway. Since re-emerging after the winter the Taliban has said it will disrupt the parliamentary elections in September, as it threatened with the presidential vote in October last year.
That turned out to be a hollow threat says Gouttierre, "but the thing we need to assume is that they're probably going to try to do whatever they can to make a statement, because this will be one of the last opportunities of this type that they will have."
A smooth, successful election will also be good for stability, he believes, because "it will be further proof that the people of Afghanistan are saying 'no' to those trying to destabilise Afghanistan, and 'yes' to the future."
