Compared with his neighbours, Mr Toledo has also been more fortunate in his opposition. Having recovered democracy in 2001, after a decade of authoritarian (and corrupt) rule under Alberto Fujimori, most Peruvian politicians have proved reluctant to jeopardise it. All but a few gadflies have shied away from calling for Mr Toledo's impeachment. Alan García, a populist former (and would-be) president, came closest. He backed a general strike last year. It failed, and Mr García faded in the polls. Now, doubtless to Mr Toledo's relief, most politicians have their sights set on a presidential election next April.
Peru's President Alejandro Toledo has failed to fulfill lavish promises, been involved in corruption scandals, faced street protests, been branded a liar and seen his popularity plummet in his four years in office. Yet he has managed to stay in power while leaders in neighbors Ecuador and Bolivia have been forced to go -- like Lucio Gutierrez, fired by Congress in Quito on Wednesday
Peru's Toledo clings on, despite crises next door
21 Apr 2005 20:00:27 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Jude Webber
LIMA, Peru, April 21 (Reuters) - Peru's President Alejandro Toledo has failed to fulfill lavish promises, been involved in corruption scandals, faced street protests, been branded a liar and seen his popularity plummet in his four years in office.
Yet he has managed to stay in power while leaders in neighbors Ecuador and Bolivia have been forced to go -- like Lucio Gutierrez, fired by Congress in Quito on Wednesday.
Toledo is likely to buck an Andean trend by staying in office to the end of his term, political analysts say.
A weak and divided opposition, fears his removal could hit the economy and memories of political turbulence in the 1990s under President Alberto Fujimori have all contributed to Peruvians sticking with their fragile democracy -- and their unpopular leader.
"Peru's government has given people more than enough reasons for revolt," said political analyst Ernesto Velit.
"Indeed there have been protests, road blocks, marches by farmers, growers of coca (the raw material for cocaine, of which Peru is the world's No. 2 producer), teachers, doctors, civil servants ... But a sense of democracy has prevailed," he added.
Toledo led street protests that helped topple Fujimori, Peru's hardline ruler from 1990 to 2000, but he failed to meet big pledges of jobs and prosperity for over half the population living on $1.25 a day.
Denials about a daughter outside marriage whom he was later forced to acknowledge; a string of scandals that cost seven ministers their jobs and exposed a top aide apparently trying to buy off judges; and allegations he was involved in electoral fraud, have further made mincemeat of Toledo's credibility.
His approval rating is now 8 percent.
With Gutierrez's ouster, Ecuador has had seven presidents in eight years and Bolivia averages nearly a leader a year in its 180-odd years of independence.
In Bolivia, indigenous-led protests over the fate of huge energy reserves felled President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada in 2003 and nearly led his successor to quit last month.
But Peru's Indians -- a powerful bloc in both Andean neighbors -- are nowhere near as well organized.
Political columnist Mirko Lauer said people feared ousting Toledo would send the economy "to hell" or allow either Fujimori or leftist rebels who terrorized Peru in the 1980s and 1990s to return in the political vacuum.
DON'T ROCK THE BOAT
Toledo has defended democracy by keeping out of the courts and the military -- all in the government's pay under Fujimori. Gutierrez was fired for meddling in the Supreme Court.
"Peruvians in general have a notion of what institutions are and defend them," Lauer said.
With the economy booming, many also see no point in ousting Toledo because upsetting the constitutional order would hurt growth and investment.
Furthermore, Peru's political parties are in disarray. Toledo has no heir from his own ranks and his vice president was forced to quit in an influence peddling scandal.
Alan Garcia, head of the main opposition party, presided over a debt default, bank nationalization and 7,600 percent inflation in the 1980s, and many say they will never trust him again.
Fujimori still has a core following and has vowed to return from Japan to run in 2006 elections. But he is wanted on murder and corruption charges and most Peruvians say they would never vote for him.
"It's not luck (that Toledo survives)," said commentator Santiago Pedraglio.
"Despite the weakness of the political parties, they have a big interest in supporting the political regime," he added.
