2006.10.15: October 15, 2006: Headlines: Figures: COS - Nepal: Politics: Congress: Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Why do Democrats suddenly think they have a chance to defeat veteran lawmaker James Walsh?

Peace Corps Online: Directory: Nepal: RPCV James Walsh (Nepal) : Special Report: RPCV Congressman James Walsh: 2006.10.15: October 15, 2006: Headlines: Figures: COS - Nepal: Politics: Congress: Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Why do Democrats suddenly think they have a chance to defeat veteran lawmaker James Walsh?

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Why do Democrats suddenly think they have a chance to defeat veteran lawmaker James Walsh?

Why do Democrats suddenly think they have a chance to defeat   veteran lawmaker James Walsh?

The answer, says Walsh's opponent Dan Maffei, is that the congressman's district has been leaning increasingly Democratic, voting for Al Gore and John Kerry in the last two presidential elections. Add to that recent polls showing the unpopularity of President Bush and the scandal-plagued, GOP-led Congress, and this election doesn't bode well for any Republican, even a nice guy like Walsh, Maffei says. "If you called me up and asked, 'Do you like Jim Walsh?' I would say yes," Maffei said. "But this election is not about whether he's a decent person. It's about whether he's a good representative for the district. I think that anybody who sides with President Bush on nine out of 10 votes is out of step with the district. It's time for a change." Congressman James Walsh of New York served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Nepal in the 1960's.

Why do Democrats suddenly think they have a chance to defeat veteran lawmaker James Walsh?

Campaign 2006: Walsh foe counting on winds of change

Erin Kelly
Washington bureau


(October 15, 2006) — WASHINGTON — Rep. Jim Walsh is the kind of congressman who normally would be considered a shoo-in for re-election.

During his 18 years in office, the amiable Onondaga Republican has used his power to bring home hundreds of millions of dollars in federal money to boost the area's businesses, universities, hospitals and towns. He has been rewarded with an overwhelming 69 percent to 90 percent of the vote in his last four elections. Even his Democratic opponent calls him a likeable guy.

So why do Democrats suddenly think they have a chance to defeat the 59-year-old veteran lawmaker?

The answer, says Walsh's opponent Dan Maffei, is that the congressman's district has been leaning increasingly Democratic, voting for Al Gore and John Kerry in the last two presidential elections.

Add to that recent polls showing the unpopularity of President Bush and the scandal-plagued, GOP-led Congress, and this election doesn't bode well for any Republican, even a nice guy like Walsh, Maffei says.

"If you called me up and asked, 'Do you like Jim Walsh?' I would say yes," Maffei said. "But this election is not about whether he's a decent person. It's about whether he's a good representative for the district. I think that anybody who sides with President Bush on nine out of 10 votes is out of step with the district. It's time for a change."

Maffei, 38, points to a poll done for his campaign late last month that shows him running neck and neck with Walsh. But Walsh says his own campaign polls show that he is in "really good shape."

Maffei also notes that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently decided to spend more time and money on the race, making it a targeted seat in its "red to blue" campaign. But Maffei has a long way to go to catch up to Walsh, who in late August had more than three times as much cash in his campaign coffers.

Walsh says Maffei's analysis of the district overlooks the fact that many of the voters who cast votes for Gore and Kerry supported him at the same time.

"I've run on the same ballot with Democratic and Republican presidents over 18 years, and I've run ahead of them all," Walsh said. "My race is not a referendum on President Bush. He's going to be in office for two more years no matter what happens. This is about who can best represent central New York. I've been an honest, hardworking, thoughtful representative, and I've delivered."

Walsh's likable personality, clean reputation and ability to use his senior position on the House Appropriations Committee to bring home money for local projects will help buffer him in a year that is looking bad for Republicans nationwide, said Robert McClure, a political scientist at Syracuse University.

"The question is whether it buffers him enough," McClure said. "We won't really know just how strong the winds of change are blowing until Election Day."

Meanwhile, Walsh is emphasizing his independent streak, pointing out issues where he has differed from Bush. Among them: He opposed the president's efforts to privatize Social Security and fought efforts to cut the food stamp program for the poor, veterans' health benefits, homeland security funding for New York, Amtrak funding and community development block grants.

He also spoke out against the Bush administration's stance that the United States does not have to abide by the Geneva Conventions in its treatment of prisoners of war and supported an increase in the minimum wage that the president opposed.

"I have agreed with the president on a number of things, including going to war," Walsh said. "But there are some very big differences. I've told him we can't spend all our money on defense — it can't be all guns and no butter. I'm more of a New York-style Republican; he's more of a Texas-style Republican."

But Maffei said Walsh is overplaying his differences with Bush and conservative GOP leaders.

An analysis of key 2005 votes by the nonpartisan Congressional Quarterly Weekly showed Walsh voted with his House leaders 92 percent of the time and cast votes that supported Bush 86 percent of the time.

"He votes with Bush on the budget, on opposing embryonic stem cell research, on supporting the Medicare prescription drug plan and CAFTA (the Central American Free Trade Agreement)," Maffei said. "When George Bush and the Republican leadership really need him, he votes with them."

Maffei, a longtime Capitol Hill aide who has never held elective office, is counting on strong voter discontent to sweep him into office. But that may not be enough against a well-liked incumbent, said McClure, of Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs.

"To close the deal, Dan may have to give people a stronger reason to vote for him, not just to vote against Jim," McClure said. "You often see challengers make a strong bid but then come up short in the last few weeks and the incumbent hangs on."

Still, Walsh should take the Maffei challenge seriously, McClure said.

"Republicans in the Northeast are in dangerous territory," the professor said. "This could be a real horse race."

EKELLY@GNS.Gannett.com





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Story Source: Rochester Democrat and Chronicle

This story has been posted in the following forums: : Headlines; Figures; COS - Nepal; Politics; Congress

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