2007.02.12: February 12, 2007: Headlines: Figures: COS - Fiji: Politics: Congress: Iraq: Hartford Courant: Shays rejects resolution that criticizes President Bush's plans to increase troop levels

Peace Corps Online: Directory: Fiji: Special Report: Former Congressman Chris Shays: RPCV Congressman Chris Shays: Newest Stories: 2007.02.12: February 12, 2007: Headlines: Figures: COS - Fiji: Politics: Congress: Iraq: Hartford Courant: Shays rejects resolution that criticizes President Bush's plans to increase troop levels

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Shays rejects resolution that criticizes President Bush's plans to increase troop levels

Shays rejects resolution that criticizes President Bush's plans to increase troop levels

Supporting the war was the central issue of his campaign, but the Fairfield County congressman won re-election to his 11th term with just 51 percent of the vote. That tough victory was attributed largely to his reputation as a straight talker. He also probably got help from the strong coattails of Republican Gov. M. Jodi Rell and independent candidate Joseph I. Lieberman, who won by 14 percentage points, largely with the backing of Republican voters, in the suburbs Shays represents. If he runs again, Shays won't have those benefits. "I think he's in trouble in '08," said Don Greenberg, chairman of the Fairfield University politics department and a Democratic activist. "There's no question the district is very much opposed to the way the war's being prosecuted, and Chris Shays has a lot to answer for." Congressman Chris Shays of Connecticut served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Fiji in the 1960's.

Shays rejects resolution that criticizes President Bush's plans to increase troop levels

For Shays, A Perilous War Vote

February 12, 2007

By DAVID LIGHTMAN, Washington Bureau Chief

WASHINGTON -- Christopher Shays' problem this week is not how to vote on Iraq.

It seems pretty clear that, unlike the rest of the state delegation, he'll reject the resolution that criticizes President Bush's plans to increase troop levels.

Here's the real challenge for Shays, the last standing New England Republican in the U.S. House: how to explain that vote to a skeptical, if not hostile, constituency back home.

He'll probably hold town hall meetings, get interviewed by the media, and he likes to talk on the phone to constituents. But unlike most votes, detailing a position on Iraq won't fit easily into a two-sentence quote or even a two-paragraph answer at a community hall.

Shays' views, like those of most of his colleagues, are the result of months and years of thought and advice-taking and reading.

But this week's House debate on the war, which begins Tuesday, is brimming with political peril for Republicans like Shays.

Supporting the war was the central issue of his campaign, but the Fairfield County congressman won re-election to his 11th term with just 51 percent of the vote. That tough victory was attributed largely to his reputation as a straight talker. He also probably got help from the strong coattails of Republican Gov. M. Jodi Rell and independent candidate Joseph I. Lieberman, who won by 14 percentage points, largely with the backing of Republican voters, in the suburbs Shays represents.

If he runs again, Shays won't have those benefits.

"I think he's in trouble in '08," said Don Greenberg, chairman of the Fairfield University politics department and a Democratic activist. "There's no question the district is very much opposed to the way the war's being prosecuted, and Chris Shays has a lot to answer for."

And Democrats know that this week's vote on increasing troop levels will put everyone on record for or against the president's strategy. As Rep. John B. Larson, D-1st District, put it, "We're going to be voting on what we've heard on the campaign trail."

But former New Hampshire Rep. Charles F. Bass, a Republican who lost his House seat in November partly because he backed the war, thought Shays may be able to remain true to his views. If the war looks hopeless in a year, Shays probably will be able to advocate a U.S. pullback without seeming hypocritical.

"Everyone will be distancing themselves" if the war goes badly, Bass said.

For the moment, though, Shays has to begin navigating his way through what could be a two-year re-election campaign.

He knows his best hope for political survival is to again explain to an increasingly impatient public the nuanced reasoning behind his decision. And so, on the eve of the debate, he spent 45 minutes in an interview outlining his current view on Iraq. He could have used more time.

He sat in a chair in the corner of his first-floor Capitol Hill office, slowly sipping from a can of a Chocolate Royale weight-reduction drink. Gone was the usual Shays brio. He looked tired, repeatedly removing his glasses and rubbing his eyes.

As he spoke, he laid out the three-part path that has led him to his current thinking: He reads his favorite books, he listens to folks back home, and he considers the avalanche of data he has collected from 15 trips to Iraq and the dozens of hearings he has held.

The resolution that House Democrats are expected to offer is a nonbinding one that criticizes the president's proposed 21,500-troop surge.

"If I had a son or daughter in the war, would I like to see that message being sent? No, it's not helping anyone's son or daughter," he said.

He wants timelines and benchmarks that Iraqis would have to follow in the months and years ahead. He wants an Iraqi plebiscite on whether Americans should stay. He insists that Iraqi troops be trained properly so they can replace Americans.

In other words, he supports Bush's Jan. 10 decision to add 21,500 U.S. troops - "subject to quid pro quos."

The framework for Shays' views come from his reading. His most recent influences include David McCullough's "1776" and Paul Johnson's "History of the American People."

He points to anecdotes that remind him of the political turmoil that inevitably surrounds war: "Lincoln had three years of misery," Shays said. "He had several sets of generals, and a lot of people called him a buffoon. He ended up running against a general in 1864." A year earlier, Lincoln had fired Gen. George McClellan, who became the Democratic presidential nominee.

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Even the Revolutionary War was not wildly popular. "One-third of the people favored independence, one-third opposed it and one-third didn't even know it was going on," Shays said. "New York was a Tory city!"

It's irrelevant, he said, that those wars occurred long before 24-hour news cycles and instant public opinion polls, when it was easier for a government to take its time waging war.

The Iraq mission needs some more indulgence from the American public - and tough timelines for the Iraqis to follow, Shays said.

While his reading offers context, messages from constituents, particularly those he has known for years, remind Shays that history is only a guide, not a primer.

"I don't know how you can have less support for the war in my district than you already do," he said.

Friends don't talk to him in anger; they counsel bipartisanship and reason.

"A lot of people say, `I supported you, but we need to get out,'" he said. "I tell them I want us to get out, too, but I don't want us to leave before the Iraqis can handle things."

But Shays knows that opponents will paint this week's vote in black-and-white terms.

So he tried to explain himself further by using the third leg of his decision-making process, fact-finding, to illustrate his willingness to stay flexible.

He credits his trip to Iraq in August with helping to reshape his position that benchmarks are needed. That was the trip on which he had an awkward meeting with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a session in which Shays politely interrupted a Baghdad meeting so he could talk to the leader.

The two men went into a corner of the room and talked. Shays told him that a lot of members of Congress no longer support the war, and unless conditions improved in Iraq, al-Maliki may have to deal with a Capitol dominated by Democrats.

Although al-Maliki heard the message from a lot of people, Shays said it's still difficult to see signs of progress. Shays hopes to return to Iraq this week for more fact-finding.

Going to Iraq is also a vivid reminder that any decision on the war involves an ongoing dialogue, not only with others, but with himself. And it will provide him with still more nuances, more talking points, more ammunition to argue that his view should not be gauged by a single vote.

But Democrats will be waiting with their vote tallies anyway, figuring people have little patience for nuance.

Contact David Lightman at dlightman@courant.com.




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Headlines: February, 2007; RPCV Chris Shays (Fiji); Figures; Peace Corps Fiji; Directory of Fiji RPCVs; Messages and Announcements for Fiji RPCVs; Politics; Congress; Iraq; Connecticut





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