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Glenn Shafer - 1968-69,Peace Corps, Afghanistan - High school geometry teacher

Curriculum Vita for Glenn Shafer

Office Address

Department of Accounting and Information Systems

Graduate School of Management, Rutgers University

180 University Avenue, Newark, New Jersey 07102

Phone 973-353-1604. Fax 973-353-1283.

gshafer@andromeda.rutgers.edu

Secretary: Grace Andes 973-353-1644.

World-Wide Web homepage:

http://www.rutgers.edu/Accounting/raw/gsm/glenhome.htm

Home Address

106 Fitzrandolph Road, Princeton, New Jersey 08540

Phone 609-497-0813, Fax 609-497-3467

Personal Information

Citizen of the United States. Born November 21, 1946, in Caney, Kansas.

Married to Nell Irvin Painter. Children: Richard, 20, and Dennis, 17.

Education

A.B., 1968, Mathematics, Princeton University.

Ph.D., 1973, Statistics, Princeton University.

Employment

1968-69

Peace Corps, Afghanistan.

High school geometry teacher.

1973-76

Department of Statistics, Princeton University.

Assistant Professor.

1976-84

Department of Mathematics, University of Kansas.

Assistant Professor, 1976-78.

Associate Professor, 1978-83.

Professor, 1983-84.

1984-92

School of Business, University of Kansas.

Professor, 1984-87.

Ronald G. Harper Distinguished Professor, 1988-92.

1992-Present Graduate School of Management, Rutgers University.

Professor II.

Service at Rutgers University

Appointments and Promotions Committee, Faculty of Management, Member 1994-96 and 1997-98, Chair 1995-96.

MBA Curriculum Task Force, Faculty of Managment, 1995-96. Organized the first major revision of the school’s MBA curriculum in

over ten years.

Director, Ph.D. in Management Program, beginning August 1997.

Academic Awards

National Merit Scholar, 1964-68.

NSF Doctoral Fellow, 1970-73.

NSF Postdoctoral Fellow, 1978-79.

Guggenheim Fellow, 1983-84.

Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, 1988-89.

Fellow, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 1990.

Fellow, American Association for Artificial Intelligence, 1992.

Current Research Projects

Investigation of causal logic, with applications to planning and auditing, with Richard Scherl (Department of Computer and Information

Science, New Jersey Institute of Technology) and Chunyan Li and Peter Gillett (Department of Accounting and Information Systems,

Faculty of Management, Rutgers University).

Causality. A book dealing both with the philosophy of causality and the use of causal logic in artificial intelligence. (This is a sequel to

my Art of Causal Conjecture, 1996).

Probability without Measure; Finance without Probability: A Game-Theoretic Foundation for Probability and Finance, with

Vladimir Vovk (Department of Computer Science, Royal Holloway College, University of London). This is a relatively mathematical

book, which shows how Kolmogorov’s axiomatic system for probability can be replaced by game-theoretic system more adapted to

many applications and how finance theory can dispense with conventional probabilistic assumptions.

Editorial Service

Associate Editor, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1980-82.

Associate Editor, International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 1986-.

Associate Editor, Knowledge Engineering Review, 1994-1998.

Advisory Board, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 1986-.

Editorial Board, American Association for Artificial Intelligence Press.

Reviewer for Mathematical Reviews, 1979-81.

Referee for journals in accounting, artificial intelligence, engineering, information science, management science, mathematical

psychology, physics, probability and statistics, and philosophy of science.

Memberships

American Accounting Association

American Association for Artificial Intelligence

American Statistical Association

History of Science Society

Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Judgment and Decision Making Society

Philosophy of Science Association

Principal Investigator for Grants

National Science Foundation, GP43248 (1974-76), "The assessment of statistical evidence," $13,200.

National Science Foundation, MCS7801887 (1978-79), "Studies in probable and statistical inference," $7,705.

National Science Foundation, MCS8002213 (1980-83), "Studies in probable and statistical inference," $34,344.

National Science Foundation, MCS8301282 (1983-86), "Studies in probable and statistical inference," $30,000.

National Endowment for the Humanities, HL2067384 (1984-85), "Translation of Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi," $21,000.

National Science Foundation, IST8405210 (1984-86), "Belief functions and fuzzy sets," $82,375.

Subcontract under Office of Naval Research, NOOO1485K0492 (1985-87), "Theory and applications of belief functions," $72,276.

Peat, Marwick, Mitchell Research Opportunities in Auditing (1986-87), "An interactive tool for managing uncertainty in expert systems

for auditing," $109,320. With Prakash Shenoy and Rajendra Srivastava.

United Telecommunications and Kansas Advanced Technology Commission (1986-88), "Expert system research and development,"

$120,540. With Kenneth O. Cogger.

National Science Foundation, IST8610293 (1986-89), "Belief functions in artificial intelligence," $255,197.

National Science Foundation, IRI8902444 (1989-91), "Belief functions in artificial intelligence," $181,715. With Prakash Shenoy.

National Science Foundation, SBE9213674 (1992-95), "The unity and diversity of probability." $80,000.

Consulting

SRI International, Decision Sciences Consortium, BMD Corporation, Exxon Production Research, Allied Bendix, General Motors,

Educational Testing Service.

Teaching Awards

Nominee, Hope Undergraduate Teaching Award, University of Kansas, 1979 and 1983.

G. Bailey Price Award for Outstanding Teaching of Graduate Mathematics, Department of Mathematics, University of Kansas, 1983.

Mentor Award from the University of Kansas Business School Doctoral Students Association, 1987, 1992.

Recent Students

Khaled Mellouli, Ph.D. in Operations Research, 1987: On the propagation of beliefs in networks using the Dempster-Shafer theory of

evidence. Teaches at the University of Tunis.

Debra Zarley, Masters in Computer Science, 1988: An evidential reasoning system. Works at Boeing Research, Seattle.

Pierre Ndilikilikesha, Ph.D. in Operations Research, 1992: A study of influence diagrams and their generalizations. Teaches at the

Fuqua School of Business, Duke University.

Ali Jenzarli, Ph.D. in Operations Research, 1995: Dependency networks for project management. Teaches at the Business School at

the University of Tampa.

Presentations During 1992-1998

"Axioms for Uncertain Reasoning." Keynote address at the Fourth International Conference on Computing and Information. Toronto.

May 28, 1992.

"Uncertainty in Expert Systems." Ten lectures as the principal lecturer at an NSF-CBMS Regional Research Conference. University

of North Dakota. June 1-5, 1992.

"The Handling of Uncertainty in Expert Systems." Keynote address at the 1992 Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Petroleum

Exploration and Production. Houston. July 22, 1992.

"Axioms for Computation in Join Trees." Department of Statistics, Temple University. October 13, 1992.

"Decision Making with Generalizations of Probability." Presentation for the panel (with Kenneth Arrow and Peter Fishburn) on

epistemic uncertainty in rational decision at the 34th Joint National Meeting of ORSA/TIMS. San Francisco. November 4, 1992.

"Probabilistic Expert Systems." Tutorial at the Rutgers Conference on Information Systems. Newark. November 20, 1992.

"The Language of Causation in Event Trees." Fourth International Workshop in Artificial Intelligence and Statistics. Fort Lauderdale.

January 6, 1993.

"Probabilistic Causation." Department of Civil Engineering. Princeton University. February 26, 1993.

"Causal Explanations for Structural Models." Organization Management Seminar. Rutgers University. Newark. March 6, 1993.

"Probabilistic Causation." Rutgers Center for Operations Research. New Brunswick. March 31, 1993.

"Probabilistic Causation." Department of Computer Science. Carnegie-Mellon University. April 22, 1993.

"The Significance of Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi for the Philosophy of Probability Today." Bayesian Statistics and Econometrics

Conference, Basel, Switzerland. April 29, 1993.

"Understanding Causation Probabilistically." Department of Philosophy. London School of Economics. June 12, 1993.

"Causality in Event Trees." Psychology Department Workshop. Princeton University. September 15, 1993.

"An Abstract Theory of Probability." Rutgers Center for Operations Research. October 21, 1993.

"An Abstract Theory of Probability." Department of Statistics. Harvard University. October 27, 1993.

"The Tetrad Representation Theorem." Statistics Seminar Series. Princeton. November 4, 1993.

"The Causal Interpretation of Bayes Nets." Decision Sciences Department, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University. February 17,

1994.

"The Causal Interpretation of Structural Equations Models." Marketing Seminar. Columbia Business School. March 3, 1994.

"Conditional Independence and its Cousins." Information Sciences Seminar, Department of Electrical Engineering. Princeton

University. April 21, 1994.

"The Causal Interpretation of Bayesian Expert Systems." Fourth Workshop on Normative Systems. Aalborg, Denmark. May 9, 1994.

"Probability and Causality." Kolmogorov Seminar, Department of Mathematical Logic, Moscow State University. May 16, 1994.

"The Representation of Causation." Plenary Lecture, International Conference on Information Processing and Management of

Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, Paris, July 4, 1994.

"The Art of Causal Conjecture." Department of Statistical Science, University College London. October 25, 1994.

"Moivrean and Humean Events." Center for the Philosophy of Science, London School of Economics. October 27, 1994.

"The Relevance of Trees." Symposium on Relevance, American Association for Artificial Intelligence, New Orleans. November 5,

1994.

"A New Probabilistic Foundation for Causal Inference." Department of Statistics. Rutgers University. December 7, 1994.

"Tutorial on Causal Models." Biennial Meeting on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, Fort Lauderdale. January 6, 1995.

"The Art of Causal Conjecture." Department of Statistics. Yale University. January 23, 1995.

"Foundations of Probability and Causality: Nine Lectures." Research Seminar on Probability and Causality. Department of

Mathematics and Computer Science, Aalborg University, Denmark. June 12-30, 1995.

"Alternative Causal Interpretations of Bayes Nets." International Research Seminar on Statistics and Expert Systems. Oberwolfach,

Germany. July 4, 1995.

"The Multiple Causal Interpretations of Bayes Nets." Invited lecture followed by panel discussion. Eleventh Annual International

Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence. Montreal. August 20, 1995.

"Lord’s Paradox." Department of Biostatistics. Columbia University. September 14, 1995.

"Two Frameworks for Causality." Department of Mathematical Statistics. Columbia University. September 18, 1995.

"Combining Statistical and Computational Ideas of Causality." Department of Computer Science. Rutgers University. October 16,

1995.

"Lord’s Paradox." Department of Operations Research. University of Delaware. October 27, 1995.

"Semantics for Computational Representations of Causality." Department of Computer Information Systems. New Jersey Institute of

Technology. Newark, New Jersey. November 29, 1995.

"New Foundations of Causal Inference." International Conference on Uncertainty in Robotics. Amsterdam, Holland. December 4,

1995.

"Evidence, Causality, and Possibility." International Atomic Energy Agency. Vienna, Austria. December 7, 1995.

"Mathematical Foundations for Causal Reasoning." International Workshop on Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence. Fort

Lauderdale, Florida. January 4, 1996.

"Foundations for Causality and Probability." Tutorial for the American Mathematical Society. Orlando, Florida. January 9, 1996.

"Huygens, Bernoulli, and Hume: The Art of Causal Conjecture." Harrisburg Chapter of the American Statistical Association. May 3,

1996.

"Lord’s Paradox." Educational Testing Service. May 20, 1996.

"Humean and Moivrean Events." International Conference on the Notion of Event in Probabilistic Epistemology. University of Trieste.

May 28, 1996.

"Causal Explanation of Statistical Observations." Séminaire Risque, Incertitude, et Décision, University of Pierre and Marie Curie

(Paris 6). November 4, 1996.

"Causal Logic." Séminaire Intelligence Artificielle et Processus de Décision, University of Pierre and Marie Curie (Paris 6). November

11, 1996.

"Causal Logic." Department of Computer Science, University of Rheims, France. November 14, 1996.

"Causal Explanation of Statistical Observations." Séminaire Risque, Incertitude, et Décision, University of Pierre and Marie Curie

(Paris 6). November 18, 1996.

"Causal Logic." Department of Computer Science, University of Fribourg, Switzerland. December 7, 1996.

"Combining Artificial Intelligence and Logic." Department of Computer Science, University of Pierre and Marie Curie (Paris 6).

December 16, 1996.

"Causal Logic." Department of Computer Science, University of Grenada, Spain. December 19, 1996.

"The Mathematical Representation of Causality." Départment d’Economie et Gestion, Ecole Normale Superieure de Cachan. January

16, 1997.

"Causality in Econometrics." Départment d’Economie et Gestion, Ecole Normale Superieure de Cachan. January 23, 1997.

"The Mathematical Representation of Probability." Départment d’Economie et Gestion, Ecole Normale Superieure de Cachan. January

30, 1997.

"The Meaning of Probability in Game Theory and Finance." Départment d’Economie et Gestion, Ecole Normale Superieure de

Cachan. February 6, 1997.

"Causality is not Counterfactual." Center for the Philosophy of the Natural and Social Sciences, London School of Economics.

February 10, 1997.

"Causality and Statistics." Department of Statistical Science, University College London. February 11, 1997.

"Causal Reasoning." Department of Computer Science, University of Toulouse. March 12, 1997.

"Causal Explanation and Causal Reasoning." UNICOM Research Seminar, London. March 17, 1997.

"Causal Explanation in Statistics." University of René Descartes (Paris 5). March 24, 1997.

"Fondement de la probabilité sur la théorie des jeux." March 25, 1997. Department of Economics, University of Paris 1.

"The Causal Explanation of Statistical Observations." April 21, 1997. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques,

Paris.

"Advances in Graphical Models." Séminaire sur les Réseaux Probabilistes. Department of Computer Science, University of Pierre and

Marie Curie (Paris 6). April 28, 1997.

"Causal Explanation of Statistical Observations." Laboratory of Intelligent Sytems. University of Econcomics, Prague. May 5, 1997.

"How to Combine Probability and Logic." Svoboda Lecture for 1997. Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague. May 5,

1997.

"The Causal Explanation of Statistical Observations." Institut Supérieur de Gestion, Tunis. May 19, 1997.

"Causal Logic." Institut des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, Carthage. May 20, 1997.

"The Philosophy of Causality." May 30, 1997. Séminaire conditionnels et rationalité, CREA, Paris.

"Conditionnement et Combinaison." June 3, 1997. Central Research Laboratory, Thompson-CSF. Orsay, France.

"The Situation of Causality. "June 10, 1997. Séminaire du Centre d’Analyse et de Mathématique Sociale, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en

Sciences Sociales, Paris.

"Game-Theoretic Foundations for Non-Additive Probability." June 12, 1997. Workshop on Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Making.

Chantilly, France.

"La Règle de Dempster." Séminaire Intelligence Artificielle et Processus de Décision, University of Pierre and Marie Curie (Paris 6).

June 19, 1997.

"How to Think about Causality." Conference on Inferential Problems in the Analysis of Treatment Effects. Santa Fe Institute. July 26,

1997.

"A Causal Action Logic." Symposium on Prospects for a Commonsense Theory of Causation, Spring Symposium Series, American

Association for Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University. March 24, 1998.

"How to Combine Probability and Logic." Invited Address. European Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Brighton, England. August

28, 1998.

"A Game-Theoretic Foundation for Probability." Invited Paper, Third Conference on Logic and the foundations of Game and Decision

Theory. International Center for Economic Research. Torino, Italy. December 17-20, 1998.

Publications

Books

A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. Princeton University Press, 1976.

Readings in Uncertain Reasoning (with Judea Pearl). Morgan Kaufmann, 1990.

Probabilistic Expert Systems. SIAM, 1996.

The Art of Causal Conjecture. MIT Press, 1996.

Articles

A theory of statistical evidence. Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science,

Vol. II, pp. 365-436. W. L. Harper and C. A. Hooker, eds., Reidel. 1976.

Non-additive probabilities in the work of Bernoulli and Lambert. Archive for History of Exact Sciences 19 309-370. 1978.

Allocations of probability. Annals of Probability 7 827-839. 1979.

Reliability described by belief functions (with A. M. Breipohl). Proceedings 1979 Annual Reliability and Maintainability

Symposium, IEEE, pp. 23-27. 1981.

Constructive probability. Synthese 48 1-60. 1981.

Jeffrey's rule of conditioning. Philosophy of Science 48 337-363. 1981.

Two theories of probability, PSA 1978, Vol. 2, pp. 441-464. Peter D. Asquith and Ian Hacking, eds. Philosophy of Science

Association, East Lansing, Michigan. 1981.

Lindley's paradox (with discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association 77 325-351. 1982.

Belief functions and parametric models (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 44 322-352. 1982.

Bayes's two arguments for the rule of conditioning. Annals of Statistics 10 1075-1089. 1982.

Belief functions. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 1 209. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1982.

The Bernoullis. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 1 214-219. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1982.

Adjusting P-values to account for selection over dichotomies (with Ingram Olkin). Journal of the American Statistical Association

78 674-678. 1983.

A subjective interpretation of conditional probability. Journal of Philosophical Logic 12 453-466. 1983.

Johann Heinrich Lambert. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 4 466-468. S. Kotz and N.L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1985.

Miller's paradox. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 5 502-503. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1985.

Moral certainty. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 5 623-624. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1985.

Nonadditive probability. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 6 271-276. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1985.

Languages and designs for probability judgment (with Amos Tversky). Cognitive Science 9 309-339. 1985. Reprinted in Decision

Making, edited by David Bell, Howard Raiffa, and Amos Tversky, Cambridge University Press, 1988, pp. 237-265.

Hierarchical evidence. Proceedings of the Second Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications, Miami Beach, December

11-13, 1985, pp. 16-21. IEEE Computer Society Press.

Conditional probability (with discussion). International Statistical Review 53 261-277. 1985.

Propagating belief functions with local computations (with Prakash Shenoy). IEEE Expert 1:3 43-52. 1986.

The combination of evidence. International Journal of Intelligent Systems 1 155-179. 1986.

Probability judgment in artificial intelligence. Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pp. 127-135. J. F. Lemmer and L. N. Kanal, eds.,

North-Holland. 1986.

Savage revisited (with discussion). Statistical Science 1 463-501. 1986. Reprinted in Decision Making, edited by David Bell, Howard

Raiffa, and Amos Tversky, Cambridge University Press, 1988, pp. 193-234.

The construction of probability arguments (with discussion). Boston University Law Review 66 799-823. 1986. Reprinted in

Probability and Inference in the Law of Evidence, edited by Peter Tillers, Kluwer, 1988, pp. 185-204.

Probability judgment in artificial intelligence and expert systems (with discussion). Statistical Science 23-44. 1987.

Belief functions and possibility measures. The Analysis of Fuzzy Information, Vol. 1: Mathematics and Logic, pp. 51-84. James C.

Bezdek, ed., CRC Press. 1987.

Implementing Dempster's rule for hierarchical evidence (with Roger Logan). Artificial Intelligence 33 272-298. 1987.

Propagating belief functions in qualitative Markov trees (with Prakash Shenoy and Khaled Mellouli). International Journal of

Approximate Reasoning 1 349-400. 1987.

Modifiable combining functions (with Paul Cohen and Prakash Shenoy). AI EDAM (Artificial Intelligence for Engineering Design,

Analysis, and Manufacturing) 1 47-57. 1987.

Qualitative Markov networks (with Khaled Mellouli and Prakash Shenoy). Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, B. Bouchon

and R. R. Yager, eds, pp. 69-74. Springer-Verlag. 1987.

Saint Petersburg paradox. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 8 865-870. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1988.

Sharp null hypotheses. Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences 8 433-436. S. Kotz and N. L. Johnson, eds., Wiley. 1988.

Propagation of belief functions: A distributed approach (with Prakash Shenoy and Khaled Mellouli). Uncertainty in Artificial

Intelligence 2 325-335. J. F. Lemmer and L. N. Kanal, eds. North-Holland. 1988.

Evidential reasoning using DELIEF (with Debra Zarley and Yen-Teh Hsia). AAAI-88; Proceedings of the Seventh National

Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp. 205-209. 1988.

AUDITOR'S ASSISTANT: A knowledge-engineering tool for audit decisions (with Prakash Shenoy and Rajendra Srivastava).

Proceedings of the 1988 Touche-Ross/ University of Kansas Symposium, pp. 61-84. 1988.

An axiomatic framework for Bayesian and belief-function propagation (with Prakash Shenoy). Proceedings of the Fourth Workshop

on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pp. 307-314, Minneapolis, MN, 1988.

The unity of probability. Pp. 95-126 of Acting Under Uncertainty: Multidisciplinary Conceptions, edited by George von

Furstenberg, Kluwer (Boston), 1990.

Perspectives on the theory and practice of belief functions. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 4 323-362. 1990.

The Bayesian and belief-function formalisms: A general perspective for auditing (with Rajendra Srivastava and with discussion).

Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory, Volume 9 Supplement, 110-148, 1990.

Probability propagation (with Prakash Shenoy). Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence 2 327-352. 1990.

Axioms for probability and belief-function propagation (with Prakash Shenoy). Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 4, pp. 169-198.

R. D. Shachter, T. S. Levitt, L. N. Kanal, and J. F. Lemmer, eds. North-Holland, 1990.

The unity and diversity of probability (with discussion). Statistical Science 5 435-462. 1990.

Why should statisticians be interested in artificial intelligence? Pp. 16-58 of Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Conference on

Making Statistics More Effective in Schools of Business, University of Kansas, June 1-2, 1990, edited by Steven Hillmer and

Lawrence A. Sherr.

What is probability? In Perspectives on Contemporary Statistics, edited by David C. Hoaglin and David S. Moore. Mathematical

Association of America, MAA Notes Number 21, pp. 93-105. 1992.

Belief-function formulas for audit risk (with Rajendra P. Srivastava). The Accounting Review 67 249-283. 1992.

The Dempster-Shafer theory. Pp. 330-331 of Encyclopedia of Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition, Stuart C. Shapiro, editor.

Wiley. 1992.

Can the various meanings of probability be reconciled? Pp. 165-196 of A Handbook for Data Analysis in the Behavioral Sciences:

Methodological Issues, edited by Gideon Keren and Charles Lewis. Lawrence Erlbaum, Hillsdale, New Jersey, 1993.

The early development of mathematical probability. Pp. 1293-1302 of Companion Encyclopedia of the History and Philosophy of

the Mathematical Sciences, edited by I. Grattan-Guinness. Routledge, London, 1993.

Integrating statistical and non-statistical audit evidence using belief functions: A case of variable sampling (with Rajendra P.

Srivastava). International Journal of Intelligent Systems 9 519-539. 1994.

The subjective aspect of probability. Pp. 53-73 of Subjective Probability, edited by George Wright and Peter Ayton. Wiley, 1994.

Propagating beliefs in AND-trees (with Rajendra P. Srivastava and Prakash P. Shenoy). International Journal of Intelligent

Systems 10 647-664. 1995.

Philosophical foundations for causal networks. Pp. 3-12 of Advances in Intelligent Computing, edited by Bernadette

Bouchon-Meunier, Ronald R. Yager, and Lotfi A. Zadeh. Springer Verlag, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 945. 1995.

The significance of Jacob Bernoulli’s Ars Conjectandi for the philosophy of probability today. Journal of Econometrics. 75 15-32.

1996.

Causal relevance. Pp. 187-208 of Reasoning with Uncertainty in Robotics, edited by Leo Dorst, Michiel van Lambalgen, and Frans

Voorbraak. Springer Verlag, Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence 1093. 1996.

Vanishing tetrad differences and model structure (with Alexander Kogan and Peter Spirtes). International Journal of Uncertainty,

Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems 4 209-224. 1996.

The situation of causality. Foundations of Science 1 543-563. 1996.

Lindley’s paradox. Encyclopedia of Biostatistics, P. Armitage and T. Colton, eds., Wiley. 1997.

A logic of action, causality, and the temporal relations of events (with Richard Scherl). Pp. 89-96 of the Proceedings of the Fifth

International Workshop on Temporal Representation and Reasoning (Time-98), edited by Lina Khatib and Robert Morris. Los

Alamitos, Calif.: IEEE Computer Society. 1998

Mathematical foundations for probability and causality. Pp. 207-270 of Mathematical Aspects of Artificial Intelligence, edited by

Frederick Hoffman. American Mathematical Society, Symposia in Applied Mathematics, Volume 55. 1998.

Causal logic. Pp. 711-719 of Proceedings of the 13th European Conference on Artificial Intelligence (ECAI-98), edited by Henri

Prade. Chichester: Wiley. 1998.

Causal conjecture. In Causal Models and Intelligent Data Management, edited by Alex Gammerman. Springer. 1999.

Book Reviews

Review of The Emergence of Probability, by Ian Hacking. Journal of the American Statistical Association 71 519-521. 1976.

Review of I. J. Bienaymé: Statistical Theory Anticipated, by C. C. Heyde and E. Seneta, ISIS 70 329. 1979.

Review of The Enterprise of Knowledge, by Isaac Levi. Technometrics 24 164-165. 1982.

Review of Statistical Decision Theory, by James O. Berger. Psychometrika 47 119. 1982.

Review of Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, edited by D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky. Journal of

the American Statistical Association 79 223-224. 1984.

Review of Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox, edited by M. Allais and O. Hagen. Journal of the American

Statistical Association 79 224-225. 1984.

Review of Faces of Science, by V. V. Nalimov. Technometrics 26 292. 1984.

Review of Statistical Methods for Meta-Analysis, by Larry V. Hedges and Ingram Olkin. American Scientist 75 438. 1987.

Review of The Empire of Chance, by Gerd Gigerenzer et al. Science 247 225. 1990.

Review of The Rise of Statistical Thinking, 1820-1900, by Theodore M. Porter. Annals of Science 47 207-209. 1990.

Review of Influence Diagrams