2009.03.10: March 10, 2009: Headlines: Figures: COS - Dominican Republic: Politics: Congress: Washington Post: Rep. Rob Simmons (R) taking 43 percent of the vote to Dodd's 42 percent in a hypothetical 2010 matchup -- a danger zone for any incumbent, particularly a Democrat in a state as blue as Connecticut
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2009.03.10: March 10, 2009: Headlines: Figures: COS - Dominican Republic: Politics: Congress: Washington Post: Rep. Rob Simmons (R) taking 43 percent of the vote to Dodd's 42 percent in a hypothetical 2010 matchup -- a danger zone for any incumbent, particularly a Democrat in a state as blue as Connecticut
Rep. Rob Simmons (R) taking 43 percent of the vote to Dodd's 42 percent in a hypothetical 2010 matchup -- a danger zone for any incumbent, particularly a Democrat in a state as blue as Connecticut
What's abundantly clear from the data is that the 2010 election is shaping up as a referendum on Dodd and his service to the state. While Simmons, who represented Connecticut's eastern 2nd district from 2000 until his defeat in 2006, is tied with Dodd, a majority of voters (53 percent) don't know enough about the Republican to rate whether they view him favorably or unfavorably. Put simply: Voters are looking for a credible alternative to Dodd. If they find one, they seem ready and willing to jump ship on the Democratic incumbent. That fact puts a premium on Republicans finding a credible alternative. Knowledgeable national Republicans are increasingly optimistic that Simmons will enter the race (and polls like this one certainly make the contest more attractive for the former House member) and expect a decision sometime in the next few weeks. Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in the Dominican Republic in the 1960's.
Rep. Rob Simmons (R) taking 43 percent of the vote to Dodd's 42 percent in a hypothetical 2010 matchup -- a danger zone for any incumbent, particularly a Democrat in a state as blue as Connecticut
Sen: Dodd's Struggles Continue
UPDATE, 2:52 p.m.: A wise Democratic strategist points out a pro-Dodd element of the Q poll we missed on our first read through. Last month in the Quinnipiac survey just 41 percent approved of the way Dodd was doing his job while 48 percent disapproved. Compare that to the new data where 49 percent approved and 44 percent disapproved and you see a glimmer of hope for Dodd in the numbers.
Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd continues to struggle in the eyes of Connecticut voters with a new poll showing the five-term incumbent in a statistical dead heat with his likely Republican challenger.
The survey, conducted by Quinnipiac University, shows former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) taking 43 percent of the vote to Dodd's 42 percent in a hypothetical 2010 matchup -- a danger zone for any incumbent, particularly a Democrat in a state as blue as Connecticut.
Inside the numbers, the prognosis isn't much better. Simmons is winning the support of 15 percent of self-identified Democrats in the poll and independents are siding with the former Republican House member by a whopping 49 percent to 32 percent.
Dodd's personal favorability ratings are also languishing with 46 percent expressing a favorable opinion about him and 45 percent feeling unfavorably. Compare those middling numbers to Dodd's showing in Q polls from May 2007 (45 percent fav/31 percent unfav) and February 2007 (49 percent fav/30 percent unfav) and you see just how badly he has been hurt by his ties to the troubled mortgage lender Countrywide and his quixotic presidential bid.
Dodd spokesman Bryan DeAngelis said that his boss was not focused on 2010 yet, adding: "When the time comes, Senator Dodd will be ready with a strong and vigorous re-election campaign."
What's abundantly clear from the data is that the 2010 election is shaping up as a referendum on Dodd and his service to the state. While Simmons, who represented Connecticut's eastern 2nd district from 2000 until his defeat in 2006, is tied with Dodd, a majority of voters (53 percent) don't know enough about the Republican to rate whether they view him favorably or unfavorably.
Put simply: Voters are looking for a credible alternative to Dodd. If they find one, they seem ready and willing to jump ship on the Democratic incumbent.
That fact puts a premium on Republicans finding a credible alternative. Knowledgeable national Republicans are increasingly optimistic that Simmons will enter the race (and polls like this one certainly make the contest more attractive for the former House member) and expect a decision sometime in the next few weeks.
If Simmons doesn't run, look for Republican recruiters to turn their attention to Tom Foley, a major fundraiser for former president George W. Bush and a former Ambassador to Ireland. Foley is interested in running and would bring personal money to the contest but, sharp operatives agree, does not have the cache as a candidate that Simmons provides.
Some Democrats continue to roll their eyes at the idea that Dodd, a titan of Democratic politics in the state, is truly vulnerable. After all, his seniority has placed him as the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee at a time when the entire world of banks is being restructured AND Connecticut is a solidly blue state -- having given President Obama more than 60 percent of the vote last November.
All true. But, Democrats ignore this race at their own peril. National Republicans have already honed in on it as a pickup opportunity and the national media (the Fix included) has started to pay attention.
No matter how Democratic Connecticut is, this race will be a referendum on Dodd. He and his team recognize there is a problem and have the better part of the next year to fix it as well as a high profile perch on the Banking committee from which to prove his effectiveness.
But, Dodd is in for a fight.
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