Doyle's decision to leave office was unsurprising to UW-Madison political science professor Charles Franklin, who noted that Doyle's approval rating had plummeted over the past year to the low 30% range as he was forced to grapple with a two-year $6.6 billion budget shortfall. UW-Milwaukee government professor Mordecai Lee, however, said he was stunned by the news. It would have been a tough race for Doyle, but the advantages of incumbency, Doyle's proven fund-raising ability and steely resolve could have helped him win a third term, said Lee, a former Democratic state lawmaker. Now, Doyle becomes a lame duck and accomplishing much in his 16 months in office is unlikely, Lee said. "Political power is really based on fear," he said. "As soon as (governors) become lame ducks, nobody is afraid of them." Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle and his wife served as Peace Corps Volunteers in Tunisia in the 1960's.
Doyle decision not to seek a third term sets off scramble for governor's seat
Doyle decision sets off scramble for governor's seat
By Patrick Marley, Stacy Forster and Steve Schultze of the Journal Sentinel
Posted: Aug. 16, 2009
The news that Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle would not seek a third term as governor touched off a political scramble Sunday, with his decision promising to rattle not only the race for governor but shake up the rest of the ticket as well.
With his decision - 15 months before the 2010 general election and lacking an heir apparent - Doyle has left potential successors on both sides enough time to run a competitive race and an open field for Democratic candidates.
Much will depend on who decides to jump in to the race for governor.
"There's no clear (Democratic) front-runner, certainly," said Joe Heim, a University of Wisconsin-La Crosse political scientist.
Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton and U.S. Rep. Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) are widely expected to get in the race, but their aides declined to comment Sunday.
Another possible Democratic contender: Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, who was recovering Sunday from an assault a few blocks from State Fair Park.
State Sen. Jon Erpenbach (D-Waunakee) did not rule out a run. An aide to Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, another Democrat who could run, declined to comment.
Doyle's announcement could shake up the Republican field as well. Former Gov. Tommy G. Thompson and Bill McCoshen, a Madison lobbyist and former Thompson aide, said they were considering runs for governor. Speculation also mounted about whether Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen and U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Janesville would get in the race, but their camps remained largely mum.
Doyle's announcement - planned for 11 a.m. Monday at his old grade school - will have a ripple effect across Wisconsin politics.
Any number of state legislators could run for lieutenant governor, which would reshape the fight for the Legislature as Republicans try to wrest at least one house from the Democrats.
If Kind runs as expected, it would open up a competitive contest for the 3rd Congressional District in western Wisconsin. State Sen. Dan Kapanke (R-La Crosse) is already running for that seat; others would likely soon join the race as well.
It's unknown whether Doyle will throw his support early to a candidate or how he will dole out the more than $2 million sitting in his campaign account.
A life in politics
Doyle, 63, has been one of Wisconsin's most successful politicians, winning five statewide elections - three for attorney general and two for governor.
Doyle's decision to leave office was unsurprising to UW-Madison political science professor Charles Franklin, who noted that Doyle's approval rating had plummeted over the past year to the low 30% range as he was forced to grapple with a two-year $6.6 billion budget shortfall.
UW-Milwaukee government professor Mordecai Lee, however, said he was stunned by the news. It would have been a tough race for Doyle, but the advantages of incumbency, Doyle's proven fund-raising ability and steely resolve could have helped him win a third term, said Lee, a former Democratic state lawmaker.
Now, Doyle becomes a lame duck and accomplishing much in his 16 months in office is unlikely, Lee said.
"Political power is really based on fear," he said. "As soon as (governors) become lame ducks, nobody is afraid of them."
Doyle as lame duck
As a lame duck, Doyle's relationship with the Legislature could worsen. His fellow Democrats were frustrated with some of Doyle's budget vetoes, saying he hadn't warned them he didn't support some of their plans. Most galling, they said, was his veto of a 0.65-cent sales tax in Milwaukee County to pay for buses and public safety.
Lawton enjoys the advantage of holding statewide office in a job that automatically makes her a logical candidate for governor. But given the relative invisibility of the office of lieutenant governor and Doyle's sour relationship with Lawton, she's unlikely to get much boost from her current job, Heim said.
Lawton's chances
The 2010 governor's race will be the first since 1982 where no incumbent ran.
Lawton's strength has been with the liberal or progressive wing of the Democratic Party and would likely enjoy support in Madison and her hometown of Green Bay. Fighting the curse of her current job - lieutenant governors seldom go on to win governor races - and overcoming Doyle's apparent ambivalence toward her could hinder Lawton's chances, however.
"She might have the worst of both worlds," Lee said. Even though she and Doyle haven't been close, Republicans are likely to try to tie her to Doyle, he said.
Lawton had $50,904 in the bank as of the end of June.
Kind, the seven-term incumbent congressman, would enjoy regional strength but likely wouldn't be well known elsewhere in the state. His background as a prosecutor, moderate record and ability to work across the aisle on some issues would serve him well, particularly as a general election candidate, Heim said.
Running for governor would mean giving up his House seat - a big consideration. But an open governor's race is also a rare opportunity that could be hard for Kind to pass up, Lee said.
"This is the (political) chance of a generation," he said.
The reshuffled governor's race comes as members of Congress face sometimes volatile town hall meetings on health care reform during the congressional recess. Kind is slated to meet with constituents over two weeks starting Tuesday in Richland Center.
Kind had $955,152 on hand, but under state law he could use just $43,128 of that for a race for governor.
Barrett's prospects
Barrett's name makes the top tier of Democratic prospects by virtue of his current job and his one-time candidacy for governor. The former Milwaukee congressman lost a tough primary for governor to Doyle in 2002 and is viewed as harboring ambitions for the top state job.
Holding office in the most populous media market of the state is a plus, but candidates from Milwaukee have seldom prevailed in statewide races, noted Franklin.
"He'd be a very credible candidate," Franklin said. Still, Barrett isn't well known in the rest of the state.
Barrett has $840,257 in his campaign account - by far the most of any of the most likely Democrats to get in the race.
At a news conference about the assault, Barrett aide Patrick Curley said Barrett hadn't talked about a run for governor.
Erpenbach didn't rule out a run Sunday, but declined to comment until after Doyle's announcement. Aides to Lawton, Kind and Falk also declined to comment.
Erpenbach has more than $21,000 on hand, and Falk has about $15,000 in the bank.
So far, the Republican primary race has largely been between Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former Congressman Mark Neumann, though Appleton businessman Mark Todd is also in the race. A political newcomer, Todd has raised little money.
Walker's position
Walker said his focus on creating jobs and managing the economic crisis would have presented a stark contrast to Doyle, but said the governor's decision not to run wouldn't change his campaign plans or message, because it would be effective against any candidate.
"We felt increasingly that we had to spend less and less of our time talking about who was responsible for that and . . . the vast majority of our time figuring out how we were going to get out of this disaster," Walker said Sunday. "Our message is going to stay focused on jobs, how we're going to rebuild the economy in Wisconsin, how we're going to put people back to work and how we're going make this a state we can believe in again."
Neumann, who jumped into the race last month, said Doyle's departure reshapes the campaign.
"I think it's really good," he said. "It's going to create an opportunity for a tremendous amount of open dialogue focused on how we can best solve the problems here in the state of Wisconsin, primarily the loss of jobs."
Walker has $1.1 million on hand. Neumann hasn't had to file a campaign finance report because he only recently got into the race.
Van Hollen had $214,252 on hand as of the end of June. Ryan had $1.3 million in his federal campaign account, but like Kind he would be able to use only $43,128 of that.
An aide to Ryan declined to comment, as did Van Hollen's political consultant Darrin Schmitz.
"It's a little early, and prior to this he's been focused on the re-elect, and that's where we still are," Schmitz said.
McCoshen reconsidering
McCoshen considered a run for governor when political observers expected Doyle to seek a third term, but McCoshen bowed out. He said Sunday he would now have to reconsider his decision.
"I've gotten a lot of calls in the last 24 hours, I'll tell you that," McCoshen said. "I would say it's still unlikely, but this has caused me to at least think about it again."
Thompson said Sunday he also was contemplating a run.
"It's a possibility, but nothing imminent," Thompson said. "I don't have to make a decision till I'm ready to, and I'm not ready to for quite some time. I have plenty of time."
State Sen. Ted Kanavas (R-Brookfield) said he would not get in the race, despite earlier considering a run.
"It's just not the right time," Kanavas said Sunday.
Patrick Marley and Stacy Forster of the Journal Sentinel staff reported from Madison and Steve Schultze from Milwaukee. Nicholas Penzenstadler contributed to this report.
