2007.03.01: March 1, 2007: Headlines: Figures: COS - Congo Kinshasa: Foreign Policy: Brookings Institute: Iraq: Wall Street Journal: Michael O'Hanlon writes: Iraq Deserves One More Chance
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Michael O'Hanlon writes: Iraq Deserves One More Chance
There are good reasons to give the war effort, now almost four years old, another six to nine months before concluding that the current strategy should be discarded and a much different one -- involving far fewer (if any) foreign forces -- adopted. First, the new surge strategy being implemented by Gen. David Petraeus, while still insufficiently resourced, is much more consonant with classic counterinsurgency doctrine than anything the coalition has tried to date. Second, Iraq's Nouri al-Maliki government, while disappointing on balance, is less than a year old and may still improve. Third, and relatedly, the Democratic victory in the U.S. last fall is still fresh -- meaning that Iraqi political leaders are still digesting its significance. Some of them may be shocked into a greater sense of urgency now that they realize the American commitment to their country is finite and waning. Michael O'Hanlon, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute and a Visiting Lecturer at Princeton University, served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Congo Kinshasa.
Michael O'Hanlon writes: Iraq Deserves One More Chance
Iraq Deserves One More Chance
By MICHAEL O'HANLON
March 1, 2007; Page A13
[Excerpt]
Nevertheless, Congress's overall efforts are misguided for one fundamental reason: We cannot yet be sure that the situation in Iraq is totally hopeless. It is indeed bad, very bad, and the Bush administration has done a poor job with a war that it chose to launch at a time and place of its choosing. But there still may be a glimmer of hope -- if not to "win," then at least to achieve some minimum level of stability.
While those claiming that Iraq is already destined for all-out civil war, genocide and disintegration may in the end have their predictions confirmed, that does not mean such an outcome is inevitable. There is still hope of preventing a war with millions killed, the establishment of a major al Qaeda sanctuary in western Iraq, and a regional conflagration going beyond the country's borders.
There are good reasons to give the war effort, now almost four years old, another six to nine months before concluding that the current strategy should be discarded and a much different one -- involving far fewer (if any) foreign forces -- adopted. First, the new surge strategy being implemented by Gen. David Petraeus, while still insufficiently resourced, is much more consonant with classic counterinsurgency doctrine than anything the coalition has tried to date. Second, Iraq's Nouri al-Maliki government, while disappointing on balance, is less than a year old and may still improve. Third, and relatedly, the Democratic victory in the U.S. last fall is still fresh -- meaning that Iraqi political leaders are still digesting its significance. Some of them may be shocked into a greater sense of urgency now that they realize the American commitment to their country is finite and waning.
Robert Gates, Condoleezza Rice and Gen. Petraeus have all indicated that the new strategy should show progress by this summer if it has any chance to be successful. While there will likely be considerable debate over how much progress would be enough to warrant its continuation at that point, we should be able to agree that the violence must decline substantially. Currently, with 4,000 civilians killed and another 100,000 fleeing their homes per month, the country is being torn apart. If these numbers do not drop substantially within six months or so, it will then be time to move on.
Patience makes sense, for now. Congressional critics should, whether they personally support the surge or not, tolerate it for a few more months. It would be better to spend their time evaluating its progress, developing proposed "Plan B" options (such as Sen. Joseph Biden's plan for federalism), and contemplating proper political and legislative strategies to force a fight with Mr. Bush if necessary come the fall, when a new fiscal year begins and a new budget for the war will again be needed. But for now, war critics should, however begrudgingly, watch and wait.
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Headlines: March, 2007; RPCV Michael O'Hanlon (Congo Kinshasa); Figures; Peace Corps Congo Kinshasa; Directory of Congo Kinshasa RPCVs; Messages and Announcements for Congo Kinshasa RPCVs; Iraq
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Story Source: Wall Street Journal
This story has been posted in the following forums: : Headlines; Figures; COS - Congo Kinshasa; Foreign Policy; Brookings Institute; Iraq
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