The five candidates vying to unseat Democratic Rep. Sam Farr of California have little in common -- except their address and the likelihood that they will lose
California: 1 hot contest in 53 House races
Monday, October 25, 2004 Posted: 6:21 PM EDT (2221 GMT)
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The five candidates vying to unseat Democratic Rep. Sam Farr of California have little in common -- except their address and the likelihood that they will lose.
The Republican, the Libertarian, the Green, the Peace and Freedom candidate and the write-in independent all work from the same donated office space in a former golf shop as they pursue longshot quests to topple the six-term House member.
Their improbable arrangement saves money, but it's also a conscious statement about the near-impossibility of beating a congressional incumbent in California.
"This American system of a representative government, it does not exist anymore. Here's what exists: The incumbents get re-elected," said Mark Risley, the Republican nominee in Farr's central coast district.
The advantages of incumbency -- a favorably drawn House district chief among them -- are making this year's races more like victory laps for those already in Washington. And the disadvantages of being a challenger have perhaps never been more stark: 53 House seats are on the November 2 ballot in California and just one is a serious contest -- and that's only because the longtime incumbent is retiring.
"I call it a monopoly. I don't think it's good for the country," said Joel Smolen, one of Risley's officemates and the Libertarian nominee.
The state Legislature has drawn congressional district lines up and down California to make seats safe for the party that holds them. The map created after the 2000 Census established 33 seats that are essentially safe for Democrats and 20 that Republicans can win, a ratio unlikely to change this year.
"It's an old saying now -- it's where the politicians select the voters rather than the voters selecting the politicians," said Allan Hoffenblum, a GOP consultant and publisher of the California Target Book, which tracks political races.
The one seat that is hotly contested is the Fresno-area 20th Congressional District, which is open due to the retirement of Rep. Cal Dooley. The seat appears likely to stay Democratic with Jim Costa, a former state senator, but the national Republican Party has been spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to make the race competitive. The Republican candidate is state Sen. Roy Ashburn.
The one other open seat in the state is the Sacramento-area 3rd District, where Republican former Attorney General Dan Lungren is the heavy favorite over Democrat Gabe Castillo. Republican Rep. Doug Ose is retiring.
California is far from unique -- of the 435 House seats nationwide, fewer than three dozen are generally regarded as competitive.
Even some presidential battleground states such as Ohio and Michigan boast not a single competitive House seat, making it unlikely that the GOP will lose control of the House. The Democrats would need to gain 12 seats for that to happen.
"We talk about the shrinking battleground states in the Electoral College," said Amy Walter, an editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "The same thing is taking place at the House level."
California's Legislature redraws district lines every 10 years, after the census reapportions the number of House seats based on updated population numbers.
Lawmakers have an incentive to protect their own party interests -- and that's just what California's Democrats did after 2000, when they cut a deal with Republicans on the 33-20 House delegation split.
At the time, some Democrats thought party leaders could have pushed to add a few more favorable seats in a state where Democratic voters greatly outnumber Republicans. But that would have put some Democratic incumbents at risk and spurred Republican lawsuits, so the party played it safe.
The result is a snoozer of a congressional ballot in a state where voters threw out their governor and regularly pass ballot initiatives that create laws which other states emulate. Indeed, with Democrat John Kerry favored to carry California on the presidential ballot and Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer cruising to re-election, the most contested questions will be several controversial propositions.
Though they have little chance of winning, Farr's opponents might cut into his margin of victory.
"I won the last race by 70 percent," Farr said. "I don't expect to win this one by that much with this type of opposition."
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