James Rupert writes: Pakistan's weaknesses, nuclear arms pose threat



Unlike other problem states -- Sudan, Iraq, Somalia, etc. -- Pakistan is a heavyweight. It's the sixth-most populous country, and one of only eight or nine with nuclear weapons. Increasingly, it also is home base to al-Qaida, the Taliban and allied Islamic militant groups. If al-Qaida someday gets an atomic bomb, or a radioactive "dirty bomb" with which to attack the U.S., many specialists say, a likely source will be Pakistan. Journalist James Rupert, head of Newsday's international bureau in Islamabad, Pakistan began his career abroad as a Peace Corps volunteer, teaching mechanics and welding in Morocco.

James Rupert writes: Pakistan's weaknesses, nuclear arms pose threat

Pakistan's weaknesses, nuclear arms pose threat

BY JAMES RUPERT | james.rupert@newsday.com

November 11, 2007

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - Why all the fuss about Pakistan?

Each year since 2002, the U.S. government has poured nearly $2 billion into this land a hemisphere away -- roughly half what it spent this year for its entire cancer institute budget and about what it spent on the international space station.

And as Pakistan slid into crisis this year, commentators as disparate as Newsweek, Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Joseph Biden (D-Del.) and London's daily Telegraph declared it the "most dangerous" country in the world.

The "Pakistan problem" is basically that it's a weak state with strong weapons. Foreign Policy magazine, which evaluates countries annually to judge which could easily fall apart, put Pakistan near the top of its list this year -- 12th out of 177.

In a more tightly knit world, "the threats of weak states ... ripple far beyond their borders and endanger the development and security of [even rich and powerful] nations," Foreign Policy wrote.

Unlike other problem states -- Sudan, Iraq, Somalia, etc. -- Pakistan is a heavyweight. It's the sixth-most populous country, and one of only eight or nine with nuclear weapons. Increasingly, it also is home base to al-Qaida, the Taliban and allied Islamic militant groups. If al-Qaida someday gets an atomic bomb, or a radioactive "dirty bomb" with which to attack the U.S., many specialists say, a likely source will be Pakistan.

Here are some basic questions about Pakistan:

Why is Pakistan supposedly such a fragile state?

Pakistan is a 60-year-old experiment, a religious homeland for Muslims who were vastly outnumbered by India's Hindus. Comprising more than a dozen major or minor ethnic groups, neither ethnicity nor language unifies this country.

As in many ethnically varied countries, the constitution promises a federal state that gives the diverse provinces a real share of power. But a small elite, largely military and mainly from Punjab province, has concentrated power in its hands. Also, Pakistan is deeply corrupt (ranking 138th out of 180 countries in the latest index by the watchdog group Transparency International). So much government money is siphoned away -- notably by the ruling military, according to researcher Ayesha Siddiqua -- that many state systems, such as schools, simply don't work. Barely half of Pakistanis can read.

Why is it said that Pakistan's nuclear program is particularly dangerous?

Pakistan actually long had two nuclear programs, one run by the flamboyant scientist Abdul Qadir Khan. The U. S. forced President Pervez Musharraf to arrest Khan in 2004 after he arranged the sale of nuclear bombmaking technology to Libya and North Korea. Musharraf claims Khan ran that operation on his own, but it was so large investigators believe senior Pakistani officials must have been involved.

Also, one of Khan's associates is a Taliban ally who reportedly met with Osama bin Laden as the al-Qaida chief was seeking nuclear or chemical weapons in August 2001. Pakistan has barred anyone from talking with Khan while he is under house arrest. It's feared some old colleagues might be ready to sell nuclear know-how.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons seem more secure. The army entrusts its bombs to a unit called the Strategic Plans Division, whose commander has been praised by U.S. nuclear security specialists.

Why is Islamic militancy so strong? Could militants take over the government?

Islamic religious parties tend to win less than 10 percent in most Pakistani elections, so they won't form an elected government anytime soon.

But authors like Harvard University researcher Hassan Abbas note that, for years, Pakistani rulers routinely have whipped up Islamic religious fervor to rally people behind them, and that sometimes gives militants exaggerated power. Independent observers say Musharraf tilted the 2002 elections toward religious parties (because he needed their support against the big secular parties that opposed his military rule).

Because the weak, corrupt government and police can't control remote areas, al-Qaida and the Taliban are free to build local fiefdoms through their armed strength, their money and their ability to influence a largely illiterate population.

And the militants have sympathizers in the military. Musharraf has purged many. Still, militants in the military help the Taliban fight U.S. troops and, in 2004, enabled suicide bombers to almost kill Musharraf.

Links to Related Topics (Tags):

Headlines: November, 2007; RPCV James Rupert (Morocco); Peace Corps Pakistan; Directory of Pakistan RPCVs; Messages and Announcements for Pakistan RPCVs; Figures; Peace Corps Morocco; Directory of Morocco RPCVs; Messages and Announcements for Morocco RPCVs; Journalism

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