"If it should be the case that older voters show up in remarkably high numbers, unforeseen large numbers, then obviously that favors (Phil) Hardberger whose support is old. If the young, liberal, Latino support, which is the underpinning of the Castro vote, doesn't materialize at all, then obviously Castro will under perform our numbers," explains Leve.
Express News Article Called "Reckless and Blatantly False"
LAST UPDATE: 5/4/2005 1:39:14 PM
Posted By: Holly Whisenhunt
Watch this story...
News 4 WOAI is the only media outlet in San Antonio tracking the mayor's race through scientific polling. On Tuesday, the San Antonio Express-News ran an article questioning the accuracy and methodology of the surveys we commission through New Jersey-based SurveyUSA.
News 4 WOAI Trouble Shooter Jeff Coyle asked Jay Leve, the editor and founder of SurveyUSA, to respond to the accusation and explain how the polls are conducted.
To measure support for the mayoral candidates, SurveyUSA randomly calls thousands of San Antonian’s and asks a series of questions designed to weed out all but those who are most likely to vote in the city election May 7th.
For the most recent survey released April 26th, SurveyUSA whittled a sample of 1800 adults down to 450 “likely voters.”
"When we get down to a group of people who tell us they are absolutely certain to vote,” says Leve, “then we believe that that's a good portrait. We're likely to get the richest, the poorest, the blackest, the whitest, the Anglo, the Hispanic, everyone of every cross-breed is able to come onto our survey and participate.
And what we find is we're able to get a great cross-section of the city of San Antonio when we do that."
The sample is then balanced to represent the age, race, and ethnicity of the city of San Antonio. For this election, SurveyUSA has included large numbers of seniors who are expected to turn out to vote on the Proposition 3 tax freeze.
"We already have factored into our equation that older voters vote disproportionately. But if it should be the case that older voters show up in remarkably high numbers, unforeseen large numbers, then obviously that favors (Phil) Hardberger whose support is old. If the young, liberal, Latino support, which is the underpinning of the Castro vote, doesn't materialize at all, then obviously Castro will under perform our numbers," explains Leve.
On Tuesday, the Express-News quoted UTSA political scientist Richard Gambitta saying the survey was “more of a crapshoot than a scientific survey.”
Gambitta reportedly claimed that SurveyUSA does not control for age, ethnicity, race, and gender. Leve responded by calling the article "reckless" and "blatantly false."
"You know, taking a public opinion poll of a city election is sort of like shooting a running deer at long distance in a high wind,” said Leve.
“Sometimes we don't get them exactly right and sometimes we miss the deer, but to suggest that we scatter buckshot all over the hillside hoping to hit something really is without foundation."
SurveyUSA had the most accurate election polls in the country in 2004, according to one outside evaluator (see article here) SurveyUSA conducts public opinion polls for dozens of television stations across the country and is under contract with WOAI-TV.
You can read more about the company and its methodology by clicking here. Also, click here to view a letter from Leve to Rebeca Rodriguez, the E-N reporter who wrote Tuesday’s article.
"We're really proud of the work that we've done, not just in San Antonio, but across the country, Leve says. “We think that there's a great race shaping up on Saturday and it should be an exciting finish."
News 4 WOAI’s next poll of the mayor's race will be released this Friday, May 6th.
