2006.10.24: October 24, 2006: Headlines: Figures: COS - Fiji: Politics: Congress: Hartford Courant: Shays leading Farrell 46 percent to 41 percent among all likely voters

Peace Corps Online: Directory: Fiji: Special Report: Former Congressman Chris Shays: RPCV Congressman Chris Shays: Newest Stories: 2006.08.31: August 31, 2006: Headlines: Figures: COS - Fiji: Politics: Congress: New York Times: Congessman Chris Shays Shifts to Favor an Iraq Timetable : 2006.10.24: October 24, 2006: Headlines: Figures: COS - Fiji: Politics: Congress: Hartford Courant: Shays leading Farrell 46 percent to 41 percent among all likely voters

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Shays leading Farrell 46 percent to 41 percent among all likely voters

Shays leading Farrell 46 percent to 41 percent among all likely voters

In response to the poll's main findings, Shays' campaign manager Michael Sohn issued a statement saying Shays "is focused on making sure voters know his 19-year record of independent leadership, accomplishment and fighting for the 4th District's transportation, housing and economic development priorities. Christopher's accomplishments stand in stark contrast to his opponent's partisan rhetoric and tax-and-spend record." Congressman Chris Shays of Connecticut served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Fiji in the 1960's.

Shays leading Farrell 46 percent to 41 percent among all likely voters

Poll: War Evens Up Race In 4th District
October 24, 2006
By JOEL LANG, Courant Staff Writer

The race between incumbent Republican Chris Shays and Democrat Diane Farrell for Connecticut's 4th Congressional District is now tied and is being driven more than ever by the war in Iraq, according to a new poll commissioned by The Courant.

The poll found each candidate with 43 percent support among likely voters, reflecting a gain of 2 percentage points for Farrell and a loss of 3 percentage points for Shays since a similar poll in early October when violence in Iraq began to escalate.

The previous poll, done by the University of Connecticut's Center for Survey Research and Analysis for the Advocate of Stamford, had Shays leading Farrell 46 percent to 41 percent among all likely voters.

The new poll shows unaffiliated voters shifting toward Farrell. In three weeks, she has erased a 16-point deficit to pull almost even with the moderate Shays in unaffiliated support, 38 percent to 39 percent.

Farrell also got a boost Monday when the Connecticut Green Party candidate in the 4th District, writer and environmental lawyer Richard Duffee, withdrew in favor of her campaign. The alliance might bring Farrell 1,300 votes. In 2004, she lost to Shays by 14,000 votes.

Her gain in the poll coincides with what Monika McDermott, center research director, said is one of its most striking findings: The war in Iraq, which voters already rated the most important issue in the campaign, has become even more dominant. The war is now the top issue for 38 percent of likely voters, compared with 28 percent three weeks ago.

McDermott said the spike probably can be explained by events on the ground in Iraq, where October is becoming one of the war's bloodiest months, and Farrell's "constantly fighting to keep [Iraq] on the agenda."

"It has been the main focus of her campaign," McDermott said, and thus more likely to make a difference in the 4th District than in the 2nd and 5th districts, where Democrats Joe Courtney and Chris Murphy are attacking Republicans Rob Simmons and Nancy Johnson over their allegiance to the party in power.

Farrell has done the same with Shays, but McDermott said, "Shays is known as a moderate and a maverick, so it's harder to tie him to the Republicans." Shays also, she said, "has set himself up as an expert on the war so he's opened himself up to criticism on that topic."

In the latest poll, Shays' approval rating declined from 59 percent to 45 percent. The congressman has made 14 trips to Iraq, and beginning even before the 9/11 attacks, has conducted scores of House committee hearings on the war and terrorism.

In response to the poll's main findings, Shays' campaign manager Michael Sohn issued a statement saying Shays "is focused on making sure voters know his 19-year record of independent leadership, accomplishment and fighting for the 4th District's transportation, housing and economic development priorities. Christopher's accomplishments stand in stark contrast to his opponent's partisan rhetoric and tax-and-spend record."

Farrell's campaign manager, Adam Wood, said, "The momentum for change is growing, particularly in the 4th Congressional District, and the poll reflects that. ... People are aware of Chris Shays' support for the president's policy on Iraq and are becoming more frustrated day by day."

An indication of how much the war helps Farrell is the poll finding that she is supported by two-thirds of the voters who consider the war the top issue, compared with 22 percent for Shays. Meanwhile, voter ranking of terrorism as the most important issue dropped from 17 percent to 13 percent.

Disenchantment with the Republican Congress, a national trend, also was reflected in the Courant/UConn poll. It found voters preferred that the Democrats take control of Congress by 54 percent to 29 percent. The previous poll, released Oct. 3, did not ask that question.

In a statement explaining the Green Party's strategic withdrawal from the 4th District race, Duffee said his candidacy was less important than Democrats' winning the House. Brakes need to be put on "Bush's imperial presidency," he said.

The new poll surveyed 805 voters from Oct. 16 to Oct. 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The results of the previous poll were announced Oct. 3.

Contact Joel Lang at jlang@courant.com.





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Story Source: Hartford Courant

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