2006.11.09: November 9, 2006: Headlines: COS - Congo Kinshasa: Foreign Policy: Brookings Institute: Iraq: Washington Times: Michael O'Hanlon writes: While control of the Congress does not always have a huge bearing on foreign policy, it could matter greatly for our effort in Iraq
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2006.11.09: November 9, 2006: Headlines: COS - Congo Kinshasa: Foreign Policy: Brookings Institute: Iraq: Washington Times: Michael O'Hanlon writes: While control of the Congress does not always have a huge bearing on foreign policy, it could matter greatly for our effort in Iraq
Michael O'Hanlon writes: While control of the Congress does not always have a huge bearing on foreign policy, it could matter greatly for our effort in Iraq
"The Iraqi government is failing to make tough decisions to unify the country. The Shia-dominated coalition has refused to promise to share oil revenue equally with Sunni Arabs. It has resisted rehabilitating former low-level Ba'athists so they can regain lost jobs and re-enter public life. It has let the militias operate with increasing impunity. It is not trying to build a new Iraq so much as protect its own sectarian interests. As we have seen throughout 2006, this is a prescription not for peace but for civil war. And it is entirely inappropriate that American GIs should keep dying while Iraqi politicians do such a poor job of running their own country. " Michael O'Hanlon, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute and a Visiting Lecturer at Princeton University, served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Congo Kinshasa.
Michael O'Hanlon writes: While control of the Congress does not always have a huge bearing on foreign policy, it could matter greatly for our effort in Iraq
Bad cop, good cop?
By Michael O'Hanlon
November 9, 2006
The world has just changed. While control of the Congress does not always have a huge bearing on foreign policy, it could matter greatly for our effort in Iraq. Congress was central in forcing the United States out of Vietnam in the early 1970s, and more recently it obliged President Clinton to leave Somalia quickly in 1994. Its power of the purse, and in particular its central role in fashioning the defense budget, mean presidents cannot sustain losing war efforts indefinitely absent congressional support.
What does this mean for American policy in Iraq? Based on the last months and years of sparring between the parties on the issue, it is hard to be optimistic about the ability of President Bush and incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to cooperate for the greater national good. After a fall election campaign, in which the president often spoke of his opponents as Defeatocrats and the party of cut and run, and Democrats mocked the president for his claim "we're winning" and his recent statement he was "pleased" with how things are going in Iraq, one shudders to think of how the two parties will interact on this matter of grave national significance when the 110th Congress takes office next year.
[Excerpt]
...Mrs. Pelosi and Mr. Bush could consider working together -- or at least putting off the hard-core fight on Iraq until 2008. They could try to make a virtue of necessity. They could agree to issue an ultimatum of sorts to the Iraqi government, backed up by the political reality of the recent Democratic triumph in the House. The point would not be to impose our will on another sovereign nation. Rather, the message to Baghdad would be that America will not indefinitely spend its treasure and sacrifice the lives of its sons and daughters for a war that is being lost.
The Iraqi government is failing to make tough decisions to unify the country. The Shia-dominated coalition has refused to promise to share oil revenue equally with Sunni Arabs. It has resisted rehabilitating former low-level Ba'athists so they can regain lost jobs and re-enter public life. It has let the militias operate with increasing impunity. It is not trying to build a new Iraq so much as protect its own sectarian interests. As we have seen throughout 2006, this is a prescription not for peace but for civil war. And it is entirely inappropriate that American GIs should keep dying while Iraqi politicians do such a poor job of running their own country.
President Bush should tell Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that, however much he might want to, he cannot sustain the American public's commitment to this war unless the situation improves fast. Portraying himself as the good cop, he can tell our Iraqi friends that the "bad cop" of the Democratic Congress will increasingly tie his hands, and that an antiwar Democrat (or even an antiwar Republican) may succeed him in the White House in 2009 unless things improve quickly.
Absent greater cooperation from Baghdad, America's commitment to the Iraq project will soon wane. As tough as this message would be to deliver, it could be sweetened somewhat with a new inducement, such as a pledge of American support to help fund an overdue job-creation program for Iraq's large unemployed population.
Mr. Bush will not want to do this, given that he has staked his presidency on the outcome in Iraq. But American political reality will soon give him little choice. That makes any ultimatum from him much more credible than it would have been before Tuesday's election. Similarly, Mrs. Pelosi, as speaker, may not want to support Mr. Bush's plan for Iraq and sustain large numbers of American troops there much longer, regardless of what Iraq's government chooses to do. But in the interest of trying to win the war, and trying to avoid a further tarnishing of the Democratic Party as the party of defeatism (however undeserved that label may be), she may be willing to cooperate.
The hour is late in Iraq. But we still have one more chance, if we are wise enough to rise above our differences and divisions at home and seize the opportunity.
Michael O'Hanlon is senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and coauthor with Kurt Campbell of "Hard Power: The New Politics of National Security."
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Headlines: November, 2006; RPCV Michael O'Hanlon (Congo Kinshasa); COS - Congo Kinshasa; Iraq
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Story Source: Washington Times
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