August 18, 2005: Headlines: COS - Fiji: Iraq: Speaking Out: Buffalo News: Fiji RPCV Len Flier says Insurgents have set up a lose-lose scenario for U.S.

Peace Corps Online: Directory: Fiji: Peace Corps Fiji : The Peace Corps in Fiji: August 18, 2005: Headlines: COS - Fiji: Iraq: Speaking Out: Buffalo News: Fiji RPCV Len Flier says Insurgents have set up a lose-lose scenario for U.S.

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Fiji RPCV Len Flier says Insurgents have set up a lose-lose scenario for U.S.

Fiji RPCV Len Flier says Insurgents have set up a lose-lose scenario for U.S.

The endgame in Iraq has begun. With 30 Americans dead in just the first week of August, it is undeniable that the insurgency is gaining strength. Members of the Bush administration who say otherwise still have their heads in the sand. There were no weapons of mass destruction, and there will be no democracy in Iraq. The insurgents have what they need to either bring down the elected government or force it to fight so brutally for its survival that the autocratic theocracy they want to install will look preferable by comparison.

Fiji RPCV Len Flier says Insurgents have set up a lose-lose scenario for U.S.

Insurgents have set up a lose-lose scenario for U.S.

By LEN FLIER

8/18/2005

The endgame in Iraq has begun. With 30 Americans dead in just the first week of August, it is undeniable that the insurgency is gaining strength. Members of the Bush administration who say otherwise still have their heads in the sand.

There were no weapons of mass destruction, and there will be no democracy in Iraq. The insurgents have what they need to either bring down the elected government or force it to fight so brutally for its survival that the autocratic theocracy they want to install will look preferable by comparison.

America, of course, is still nominally in control. The insurgents do not have the firepower to force America out of Iraq. Nor do they have the support of the majority of the population. But both of these impediments will be overcome if the insurgents are able to keep up the pressure.

The United States is losing upwards of 30 soldiers a month. The Iraqis are losing hundreds. Neither government can sustain that level of attrition much longer. The insurgents, on the other hand, can afford to be patient.

So, here is how the endgame will play out. The Iraqi government must not fall or the insurgents will win. But if the Iraqi government is to stand, it has to end the insurgency. The only way it can do this is the same way the Romans, the communists and Saddam Hussein subdued their unruly territories: Throw away any quaint notions of liberal rights, institute a police state and make people "disappear" until the population is so frightened that people will inform against their fellow citizens at the slightest whiff of sedition.

But if the government tries to preserve itself by instituting a police state, the insurgents will win again. Why? Because the insurgents will have completely turned the tables on us: Instead of standing up against Saddam's repressive regime, we will wind up supporting our own repressive regime. This will reveal the Americans to be what the insurgents always said we were - hypocrites with no genuine respect for the people we pretend to be helping.

I don't see any way the United States can avoid one of these two outcomes. We can either withdraw and allow the current government to collapse, or we can continue to support it as it transforms itself into something as vile and reprehensible as Saddam himself. Either way, the insurgents win.

I hope I'm wrong about the endgame in Iraq. But if I'm right, then there are two important lessons we need to learn from this experience:

The first is that social evolution has to precede democracy. You can't plant a tree in the ice and expect it to grow. You have to thaw the ice first, and then the tree will sprout by itself.

The second is that you can't win the game unless you can win the endgame. So, before we start another war, we had better have a plan to win the peace.


Len Flier is a returned Peace Corps volunteer and graduate student at the University at Buffalo. He lives in Collins.





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Story Source: Buffalo News

This story has been posted in the following forums: : Headlines; COS - Fiji; Iraq; Speaking Out

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